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2026 Florida Republican House Primary Polls, Odds & Candidates

Name: 2026 Florida Republican House Primary Polls, Odds & Candidates — prediction market odds
Creator: kalshi

Primary Day: Aug 18, 2026Market closes: Aug 25, 8:00am ET (Aug 25, 12:00pm UTC)

FL-22 Republican nominee?

$250.6K

AUG 18, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

Deposit $20, get $50 on Polymarket

Race Snapshot

Compare the candidates' live odds and fundraising. Updated Aug 14, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC.

Candidate	Live odds	Funds raised
Michael Carbonara	55%	$6.33M
David Burck	29%	$253.1K
Casey Askar	7%	$2.57M
Michael Thompson	3%	$23.6K
Steve Avila	1%	—
Lateresa Jones	1%	$11.0K
Herbie Wertheim	1%	$2.50M
Deborah Adeimy	1%	$162.5K
Paola Branda	1%	$25.9K
Anna Medvedeva	1%	$278.3K
Antonio Srado	1%	$328
Chris Collins	1%	$3.41M
Richard Evans	1%	—
Terri Hasdorff	1%	$46.1K

OddsLive Odds

Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 14, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC.

Odds History

Total volume

$250.6K

24h volume

$10.0K

M. Carbonara55%

D. Burck29%

B. Keiser12%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Election Dates and Deadlines

Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.

August

TUE 18

Florida 2026 primary

August

TUE 25

Prediction market closes

November

TUE 3

Florida 2026 general election

Latest Race Updates

Key developments affecting the candidates, polls and prediction market odds.

FL-22 Republican nominee?

Michael Carbonara is now at 46% and leads by 9.0 points in the FL-22 Republican nominee race.

46%

FL-22 Republican nominee?

Michael Carbonara has raised $6,332,572.73 this cycle, but David Burck holds the lead in the latest odds for "FL-22 Republican nominee?"

34%

Latest Election News

Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.

AINews Summary

Michael Carbonara has boosted his Florida 22nd District campaign by selling 10 Bitcoin to self-fund his bid. The race is unfolding after Florida redistricting reshaped South Florida House contests, while broader 2026 fundraising reports show Democrats outraising Republicans in many battleground seats. Carbonara’s self-funding could strengthen his nomination bid, but the overall effect on the market is still unclear. Broader fundraising trends and redistricting add some uncertainty rather than pointing to a clear favorite.

Articles

NNNBC News2 months ago

Live updates: Candidates advance to midterm battles in California, Iowa, N.J. and 3 other states

Follow the latest Trump administration news and primary coverage as election races unfold in New Jersey, California, Iowa and other states.

ZZeroHedge15 days ago

House Democrats Expand Midterm 'Red To Blue' Target Map To 30 Seats

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

ESEUROPE SAYS14 days ago

Michael Carbonara says he opposes local data center, but his actions say otherwise

Michael Carbonara, a Republican candidate for Florida’s 22nd Congressional District, is defending data centers and bitcoin mining operations even as he

NNPR23 days ago

GOP redistricting has divided Black areas in these 6 states : NPR

These maps show that the redistricting battle President Trump initiated has so far had a particular impact on largely Black congressional districts in Republican-led states.

TPThe Philadelphia Inquirer4 days ago

Surprise nominees, candidate scandals scramble the battle for Congress

Antiestablishment fervor among grassroots organizers has made prognosticating harder for consultants and pollsters, and scandals are adding more volatility.

NNewsweek15 days ago

Map Shows States Elon Musk's Midterm Money Machine Could Impact Most

Newsweek analysis identifies the states where a revived America PAC could have the greatest impact in 2026.

NNNBC News2 months ago

House Republicans prepare ad blitz to lock in Florida and Virginia redistricting wins

House Republicans are looking to capitalize on recent redistricting developments in Florida and Virginia, with a GOP super PAC announcing it plans to spend millions more in those states this fall.

NNewsmax2 months ago

Wasserman Schultz Campaign Drawing Fire in Redrawn Fla. District

Igniting fierce primary battles and deep divisions within the Democratic Party over Black political representation is the decision of longtime Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., to seek reelection in Florida's newly redrawn, majority-minority 20th Congressional District.

DDecrypt3 months ago

Florida Candidate Liquidates $800K in Bitcoin to Bankroll Congressional Bid

A Republican candidate jockeying to represent Florida’s 22nd Congressional District liquidated Bitcoin to help fuel his political bid.

LALos Angeles Times14 days ago

Though California could be key to House control, it now has few battlegrounds

California's redistricting has helped drive a decrease in the number of competitive congressional districts nationwide, a new analysis found. The battlegrounds that are left could have national consequences.

Latest Polls

Polling results and averages based on polls published between Aug 4, 2026 and Aug 6, 2026.

Victory Insights

20%15%10%5%0%

13.1%

11.4%

8.7%

5.6%

C. Askar

M. Carbonara

D. Burck

T. Hasdorff

M. Thompson

R. Evans

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Askar	Carbonara	Burck	Hasdorff	Thompson	Evans
Victory InsightsAug 4 - 6	Askar+1.7	13.1%	11.4%	8.7%	5.6%	3.1%	2.9%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Candidate Endorsements

Maggie's List

Antonio Srado2

Richard Evans2

Terri Hasdorff3

Campaign Fundraising

Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Jul 29, 2026

$10M

$7.5M

$5M

$2.5M

M. Carbonara

C. Collins

C. Askar

H. Wertheim

P. Dandiya

A. Medvedeva

D. Burck

D. Adeimy

T. Hasdorff

P. Branda

M. Thompson

L. Jones

A. Srado

R. Evans

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

M. CarbonaraMichael Carbonara

$6.33MContrib: $59.8K

$36.6KSpent: $6.30M

$331.4KLast period: $920

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

C. CollinsChris Collins

$3.41MContrib: $8.0K

$947.6KSpent: $2.46M

$129.6KLast period: $0

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

C. AskarCasey Askar

$2.57MContrib: $57.8K

$1.05MSpent: $1.52M

$80.0KLast period: $56.3K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

H. WertheimHerbie Wertheim

$2.50MContrib: $0

$0Spent: $2.50M

$138.9KLast period: $0

TERMINATION REPORT · Jun 30, 2026

P. DandiyaPia Dandiya

$2.28MContrib: $2.04M

$1.30MSpent: $987.4K

$52.0KLast period: $186.3K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

A. MedvedevaAnna Medvedeva

$278.3KContrib: $28.0K

$0Spent: $278.3K

$15.5KLast period: $7.2K

TERMINATION REPORT · Jun 30, 2026

D. BurckDavid Burck

$253.1KContrib: $253.1K

$67.1KSpent: $186.0K

$9.8KLast period: $47.6K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

D. AdeimyDeborah Adeimy

$162.5KContrib: $109.3K

$33.7KSpent: $132.4K

$7.0KLast period: $6.5K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

T. HasdorffTerri Hasdorff

$46.1KContrib: $31.1K

$27.9KSpent: $18.3K

$962Last period: $13.8K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

P. BrandaPaola Branda

$25.9KContrib: $4.2K

$1.7KSpent: $24.2K

$1.3KLast period: $4.0K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

M. ThompsonMichael Thompson

$23.6KContrib: $23.6K

$3.0KSpent: $20.6K

$1.1KLast period: $5.2K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

L. JonesLateresa Jones

$11.0KContrib: $602

$130Spent: $10.9K

$605Last period: $602

JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026

A. SradoAntonio Srado

$328Contrib: $328

$0Spent: $328

$22Last period: $8

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

R. EvansRichard Evans

$0Contrib: $0

$447Spent: $0

$0Last period: $0

YEAR-END · Dec 31, 2025

Source: FEC

2026 Florida Republican House Primary Polls, Odds & Candidates

FL-22 Republican nominee?

Race Snapshot

OddsLive Odds

Odds History

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

FL-22 Republican nominee?

FL-22 Republican nominee?

Latest Election News

Live updates: Candidates advance to midterm battles in California, Iowa, N.J. and 3 other states

House Democrats Expand Midterm 'Red To Blue' Target Map To 30 Seats

Michael Carbonara says he opposes local data center, but his actions say otherwise

GOP redistricting has divided Black areas in these 6 states : NPR

Surprise nominees, candidate scandals scramble the battle for Congress

Map Shows States Elon Musk's Midterm Money Machine Could Impact Most

House Republicans prepare ad blitz to lock in Florida and Virginia redistricting wins

Wasserman Schultz Campaign Drawing Fire in Redrawn Fla. District

Florida Candidate Liquidates $800K in Bitcoin to Bankroll Congressional Bid

Though California could be key to House control, it now has few battlegrounds

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

FL-25 Democratic nominee?

FL-06 Republican nominee?

Florida Governor winner?

Race Snapshot

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

FL-22 Republican nominee?

FL-22 Republican nominee?

Latest Election News

Live updates: Candidates advance to midterm battles in California, Iowa, N.J. and 3 other states

House Democrats Expand Midterm 'Red To Blue' Target Map To 30 Seats

Michael Carbonara says he opposes local data center, but his actions say otherwise

GOP redistricting has divided Black areas in these 6 states : NPR

Surprise nominees, candidate scandals scramble the battle for Congress

Map Shows States Elon Musk's Midterm Money Machine Could Impact Most

House Republicans prepare ad blitz to lock in Florida and Virginia redistricting wins

Wasserman Schultz Campaign Drawing Fire in Redrawn Fla. District

Florida Candidate Liquidates $800K in Bitcoin to Bankroll Congressional Bid

Though California could be key to House control, it now has few battlegrounds

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

FL-25 Democratic nominee?

FL-06 Republican nominee?

Florida Governor winner?