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AUG 19, 2026Primary Election
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Michael Carbonara’s Republican-nominee market for FL-22 has fallen to 0.57 from 0.80 yesterday, while recent public reporting says Dan Franzese won the GOP nomination. That gap makes Carbonara a live repricing candidate rather than a settled favorite.
Michael Carbonara’s Republican-nominee price in FL-22 is back at 0.78 after a sharp intraday rebound, and AP-reported results now show another candidate, Dan Franzese, winning the nomination. That makes Carbonara’s market still tradable only as a live repricing signal against new public reporting, not as a settled favorite.
Michael Carbonara is self-funding much of his bid in Florida’s 22nd District, including a reported sale of 10 Bitcoin for $800,000. A later newsletter repeated the same report. The news is campaign-finance related rather than a polling or endorsement shift. The self-funding report could modestly strengthen Carbonara’s standing by signaling campaign resources, but it does not show broader support. Overall impact looks limited and candidate-specific.
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A Republican candidate jockeying to represent Florida’s 22nd Congressional District liquidated Bitcoin to help fuel his political bid.
Kalshi got the formal approval, but it's Hyperliquid that caught the most buzz with a massive move over the weekend.
M. CarbonaraMichael Carbonara
H. WertheimHerbie Wertheim
P. DandiyaPia Dandiya
C. CollinsChris Collins
A. MedvedevaAnna Medvedeva
D. AdeimyDeborah Adeimy
D. BurckDavid Burck
P. BrandaPaola Branda
A. SradoAntonio SradoSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
