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Who will win the 2026 Florida District 9 US House Republican Primary?

Aug 19, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 24 daysLast updated: Jul 26, 2026, 1:53 PM UTC

FL-09 Republican nominee?

$16.3K

AUG 19, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$16.3K

24h volume

$823

T. Chalifoux49%

J. Martinez15%

M. Carter10%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

August

TUE 18

Florida 2026 primary

November

TUE 3

Florida 2026 general election

Latest Insights

FL-09 Republican nominee?

15h

Thomas Chalifoux's odds fell below the previous low of 61%, setting a new floor for "FL-09 Republican nominee?"

49%12%

News

AINews Summary

There are no recent reports directly tied to the Florida 9th Congressional District Republican primary. The Florida item in the feed is about local races and broader qualifying deadlines, not this nomination. Other stories are unrelated to FL-09. No clear market-moving development is reported for this nomination. The race appears unchanged based on the provided summaries, leaving uncertainty largely intact.

Articles

NNNBC News2 months ago

What to watch in Tuesday’s Texas primaries

Tuesday’s primary runoffs in Texas will put President Donald Trump’s endorsement to the test again — the latest step in a mission to punish some incumbent Republicans Trump has deemed insufficiently loyal

NNPR3 days ago

GOP redistricting has divided Black areas in these 6 states : NPR

These maps show that the redistricting battle President Trump initiated has so far had a particular impact on largely Black congressional districts in Republican-led states.

NNNBC News2 months ago

NAACP calls for Black student-athletes to boycott Southern schools amid redistricting backlash

The NAACP is urging Black student-athletes to withhold their college commitments in states where new congressional maps could be drawn.

WEWashington Examiner6 days ago

House GOP campaign arm expands 2026 target list

The targets include seats that were redrawn following rounds of redistricting in several states.

TIThe Intercept2 months ago

AIPAC, AI, Crypto and Gambling Are Hiding Their Big Election Spends

Intercept staffers break down the latest election news and the front groups fueling the midterms.

BIBusiness Insider1 month ago

The Data Center Boom Is Colliding With the Midterms

The majority of competitive House districts have data centers either planned or under construction, a POLITICO analysis shows.

TNThe New Yorker2 months ago

Has Nancy Mace’s Crusade Against Sexual Violence Ruined Her Career?

Last year, the Republican congresswoman accused her ex-fiancé of sexual assault. It may have doomed her bid for South Carolina’s gubernatorial nomination. Moira Donegan reports.

NNJ.com2 months ago

Republican: Delaney Hall is uncomfortable for GOP to defend. Dem: Sherrill is doing the right thing to fight| Friendly Fire

Trump’s foreign policy push, eye-popping Pentagon spending, and a shaky midterm map all collide with New Jersey’s own flashpoints — from Mikie Sherrill’s budget crunch to an immigration fight unfolding in Newark — as Mike and Julie break down who’s winning, who’s scrambling, and what actually matters.

TTCPalm2 months ago

St Lucie, Indian River, Martin gear up for wild elections

Florida gerrymandering puts Vero Beach area in a heartland congressional district. Local races heat up in St Lucie, Indian River, Martin counties.

TIThe Intercept2 months ago

AI, Crypto, and AIPAC’s New Strategies to Obscure Campaign Spending

Murky political super PACs tout innocuous causes like “jobs,” “democracy,” and “electing women.” Here’s a guide to who’s really behind them.

Endorsements

Steve Rance

Steve Johnson

Steve Johnson endorsed Steve Rance.

Learn more

Jorge Malavet

Florida Hispanic Chamber of Commerce Political Operations Division

Florida Hispanic Chamber of Commerce Political Operations Division endorsed Jorge Malavet in his campaign.

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Jason Fischer

President Trump

President Trump endorsed Jason Fischer.

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Brian Mast

Brian Mast endorsed Jason Fischer.

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Larry Kudlow

Larry Kudlow endorsed Jason Fischer.

Learn more

Florida Chamber of Commerce

Florida Chamber of Commerce endorsed Jason Fischer.

Learn more

Lincoln-Reagan Committee

Lincoln-Reagan Committee endorsed Jason Fischer.

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Florida Farm Bureau

Florida Farm Bureau endorsed Jason Fischer.

Learn more

Robbie Brackett

Associated Industries of Florida

Associated Industries of Florida endorsed Robbie Brackett.

Learn more

Florida Chamber of Commerce

Florida Chamber of Commerce endorsed Robbie Brackett.

Learn more

Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Jun 30, 2026

$5M

$3.8M

$2.5M

$1.3M

T. Chalifoux

J. Martinez

S. Rance

J. Story

J. Malavet

M. Carter

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

T. ChalifouxThomas Chalifoux

$3.13MContrib: $67.1K

$2.72MSpent: $1.01M

$56.3KLast period: $54.8K

JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026

J. MartinezJorge Martinez

$792.5KContrib: $292.5K

$756.6KSpent: $35.9K

$2.0KLast period: $285.5K

JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026

S. RanceSteve Rance

$136.3KContrib: $56.7K

$8.5KSpent: $127.9K

$7.1KLast period: $21.8K

JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026

J. StoryJustin Story

$92.1KContrib: $68.0K

$43.4KSpent: $48.7K

$2.7KLast period: $44.7K

JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026

J. MalavetJorge Malavet

$27.8KContrib: $21.7K

$39Spent: $27.8K

$1.5KLast period: $4.1K

JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026

M. CarterMarcus Carter

$20.8KContrib: $20.8K

$3.1KSpent: $18.9K

$1.1KLast period: $5.8K

TERMINATION REPORT · Jun 30, 2026

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

Polls

Who will win the 2026 Florida District 9 US House Republican Primary?

FL-09 Republican nominee?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

FL-09 Republican nominee?

News

What to watch in Tuesday’s Texas primaries

GOP redistricting has divided Black areas in these 6 states : NPR

NAACP calls for Black student-athletes to boycott Southern schools amid redistricting backlash

House GOP campaign arm expands 2026 target list

AIPAC, AI, Crypto and Gambling Are Hiding Their Big Election Spends

The Data Center Boom Is Colliding With the Midterms

Has Nancy Mace’s Crusade Against Sexual Violence Ruined Her Career?

Republican: Delaney Hall is uncomfortable for GOP to defend. Dem: Sherrill is doing the right thing to fight| Friendly Fire

St Lucie, Indian River, Martin gear up for wild elections

AI, Crypto, and AIPAC’s New Strategies to Obscure Campaign Spending

Endorsements

Fundraising

Related races

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Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

FL-09 Republican nominee?

News

What to watch in Tuesday’s Texas primaries

GOP redistricting has divided Black areas in these 6 states : NPR

NAACP calls for Black student-athletes to boycott Southern schools amid redistricting backlash

House GOP campaign arm expands 2026 target list

AIPAC, AI, Crypto and Gambling Are Hiding Their Big Election Spends

The Data Center Boom Is Colliding With the Midterms

Has Nancy Mace’s Crusade Against Sexual Violence Ruined Her Career?

Republican: Delaney Hall is uncomfortable for GOP to defend. Dem: Sherrill is doing the right thing to fight| Friendly Fire

St Lucie, Indian River, Martin gear up for wild elections

AI, Crypto, and AIPAC’s New Strategies to Obscure Campaign Spending

Endorsements

Fundraising

Related races

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

FL-06 Republican nominee?

FL-16 Republican nominee?

FL-25 Democratic nominee?