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2026 Maine House Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

Name: 2026 Maine House Election Polls, Odds & Candidates — prediction market odds
Creator: kalshi

Election Day: Nov 3, 2026Market closes: Nov 6, 11:59pm ET (Nov 7, 4:59am UTC)

ME-02 House winner?

$29.2K

NOV 3, 2026

General Election

Voters choose the office holder.

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Race Snapshot

Compare the candidates' live odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated Aug 18, 2026, 12:23 AM UTC.

Candidate	Live odds	Poll average	Funds raised
Matthew Dunlap	45%	43.0%	$1.21M
Paul R. LePage	42%	48.0%	$2.56M

OddsLive Odds

Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 18, 2026, 12:23 AM UTC.

Odds History

Total volume

$29.2K

24h volume

$65

M. Dunlap45%

Paul R. LePage42%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Election Dates and Deadlines

Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.

November

TUE 3

Maine 2026 general election

November

FRI 6

Prediction market closes

Latest Race Updates

Key developments affecting the candidates, polls and prediction market odds.

ME-02 House winner?

Matthew Dunlap is now leading with 57% odds in the ME-02 House winner race, after the lead changed from a Republican to a Democrat.

57%

ME-02 House winner?

Paul R. LePage's odds are now 44%, below the previous low of 57%.

44%13%

Latest Election News

Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.

AINews Summary

Matt Dunlap has secured the Democratic nomination in Maine's 2nd Congressional District after ranked-choice tabulation. He will face former Gov. Paul LePage for the open seat after Jared Golden decided not to run again. The race is expected to be one of the state's most competitive House contests. The Democratic nomination is now settled, which reduces uncertainty on that side. The open-seat matchup with LePage keeps the race competitive and likely closely watched.

Articles

AOArkansas Online2 months ago

Primaries in Maine set Pingree, Charles to compete for governor

PORTLAND, Maine -- Democrat Hannah Pingree and Republican Bobby Charles will compete this fall to become Maine's next governor.

SSSpokane Spokesman-Review2 months ago

Maine Democrats pick progressive Dunlap in key House race after Golden exit

Maine Democrats nominated state auditor Matthew Dunlap to run in the state’s 2nd Congressional District, a closely watched race that could help decide control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November, U.S. media projected on Friday.

TBThe Boston Globe2 months ago

Pingree and Charles will compete for Maine governor and Dunlap gets Democratic nod for US House

Pingree and Charles won their primaries Friday, after the June 9 contests advanced to ranked choice voting.

BDBangor Daily News2 months ago

Matt Dunlap will be the Democrat facing Paul LePage in Maine’s 2nd District

Dunlap overcame a first-round deficit to knock off state Sen. Joe Baldacci in a battle of Bangor-area politicians.

PPOLITICO2 months ago

Matt Dunlap beats DCCC-backed candidate in primary for top Maine battleground

The seat has become a priority target for both parties following Democratic Rep. Jared Golden’s decision not to run for reelection.

BDBangor Daily News2 months ago

Maine’s pivotal ranked-choice voting count will stretch into Thursday

“It’s a time-consuming process,” said Kate McBrien, who is administering the count in place of Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, a leading Democratic gubernatorial candidate.

PPPortland Press Herald1 month ago

Who’s running to replace Graham Platner - and who isn’t

A former logger, the owner of a brewery and a public health chief are among the candidates now vying for the Democratic nomination to take on Sen. Susan Collins.

NNewsweek2 months ago

Josh Turek Edges Out GOP’s Ashley Hinson in Internal Iowa Senate Poll

Democrats believe Iowa will be competitive in this year's midterm elections despite the state's increasingly conservative lean.

Latest Polls

Polling results and averages based on polls published between Jun 4, 2025 and Jul 16, 2026.

Polling Average

60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

48%

43%

P. LePage

M. Dunlap

Date (Start - End)	Spread	LePage	Dunlap
Polling Average	LePage+5.0	48.0%	43.0%
Tulchin ResearchJul 11 - 16	Dunlap+1.0	48.0%	49.0%
co/efficientApr 26 - 28	LePage+10.0	50.0%	40.0%
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterFeb 12 - 16	LePage+1.0	47.0%	46.0%
Mellman GroupJun 4 - 10	LePage+10.0	47.0%	37.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Candidate Endorsements

Paul R. LePage3

Campaign Fundraising

Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Jun 30, 2026

$5M

$3.8M

$2.5M

$1.3M

P. LePage

M. Dunlap

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

P. LePagePaul R. LePage

$2.56MContrib: $1.83M

$1.69MSpent: $878.2K

$48.8KLast period: $247.7K

TERMINATION REPORT · Jun 30, 2026

M. DunlapMatthew Dunlap

$1.21MContrib: $1.19M

$228.6KSpent: $976.8K

$54.3KLast period: $271.8K

JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026

Source: FEC

2026 Maine House Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

ME-02 House winner?

Race Snapshot

OddsLive Odds

Odds History

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

ME-02 House winner?

ME-02 House winner?

Latest Election News

Primaries in Maine set Pingree, Charles to compete for governor

Maine Democrats pick progressive Dunlap in key House race after Golden exit

Pingree and Charles will compete for Maine governor and Dunlap gets Democratic nod for US House

Matt Dunlap will be the Democrat facing Paul LePage in Maine’s 2nd District

Matt Dunlap beats DCCC-backed candidate in primary for top Maine battleground

Maine’s pivotal ranked-choice voting count will stretch into Thursday

Who’s running to replace Graham Platner - and who isn’t

Josh Turek Edges Out GOP’s Ashley Hinson in Internal Iowa Senate Poll

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Maine Senate winner?

Maine Senate winner? (Person)

Maine Governor winner?

Maine State Senate winner?

Race Snapshot

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

ME-02 House winner?

ME-02 House winner?

Latest Election News

Primaries in Maine set Pingree, Charles to compete for governor

Maine Democrats pick progressive Dunlap in key House race after Golden exit

Pingree and Charles will compete for Maine governor and Dunlap gets Democratic nod for US House

Matt Dunlap will be the Democrat facing Paul LePage in Maine’s 2nd District

Matt Dunlap beats DCCC-backed candidate in primary for top Maine battleground

Maine’s pivotal ranked-choice voting count will stretch into Thursday

Who’s running to replace Graham Platner - and who isn’t

Josh Turek Edges Out GOP’s Ashley Hinson in Internal Iowa Senate Poll

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Maine Senate winner?

Maine Senate winner? (Person)

Maine Governor winner?

Maine State Senate winner?