$4.8K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
Total volume
$4.8K
24h volume
$240
source: Kalshi
The Democratic win market for Michigan’s 4th moved from 27% to 34% over the past day, alongside fresh public reporting that Crystal Ball shifted the seat toward Democrats. That makes the race a bit more tradable on the margin, even though it remains a Republican-leaning seat.
That’s above the previous high of 29% for the MI-04 House winner race.
There are no district-specific developments for Michigan’s 4th Congressional District in the provided news. Recent coverage instead centers on other House races, state primaries, and a Michigan state Senate special election. The market appears to have no new direct signal from these items. Little to no direct impact on this market from the provided news. The lack of district-specific updates leaves odds and uncertainty largely unchanged.
Candidates had until 4 p.m. to file their paperwork and nominating petitions to get a shot at appearing on the Aug. 4 primary ballots.
Democrats consider dozens of seats "in play" this November, and aim to leverage the domestic fallout from Trump's war in Iran.
The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shifted 17 House races Wednesday in response to redistricting, primary elections and congressional scandals.
President Trump scored decisive victories in Indiana's GOP primaries, with his endorsed challengers defeating state senators who blocked his redistricting push last December.
From Capitol News Illinois: Legal experts, including two attorneys who formerly worked in the Voting Section of DOJ’s Civil Rights Division, argue DOJ has no legal authority to access sensitive personal data about individual voters
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The GOP's House majority shrunk following the death of Representative Doug LaMalfa, a California Republican.
President Donald Trump's effort to defeat Republicans who have opposed key priorities turns Tuesday to Indiana's state Senate primaries, in which he and his allies are trying to unseat seven GOP state senators who voted last year against redrawing the state’s congressional map
President Donald Trump is waging a retribution campaign against some fellow Republicans in the primary in Indiana.
Candidates looking to take down sitting members of Congress in primaries are stockpiling cash as their races heat up, according to fundraising reports filed Wednesday — and it’s Democratic lawmakers who are mostly on defense.
Candidates in a pair of statewide races are off the March 17 primary ballot due to successful objections to their nominating petitions, Illinois State Board of Elections officials ruled Wednesday.
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Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
