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2026 Alaska Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

Name: 2026 Alaska Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates — prediction market odds
Creator: kalshi

Election Day: Nov 3, 2026Market closes: Nov 3, 11:00am ET (Nov 3, 3:00pm UTC)

Alaska Senate winner? (Person)

$217.8K

NOV 3, 2026

General Election

Voters choose the office holder.

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Race Snapshot

Compare the candidates' live odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated Sep 20, 2026, 1:58 PM UTC.

Candidate	Live odds	Poll average	Funds raised
Mary Peltola	70%	49.0%	$152.3K
Dan Sullivan	29%	46.1%	$9.14M
Dan Sullivan	1%	46.1%	$9.14M

OddsLive Odds

Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Sep 20, 2026, 1:58 PM UTC.

Odds History

Total volume

$217.8K

24h volume

$16.3K

M. Peltola70%

D. Sullivan29%

D. Sullivan1%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Election Dates and Deadlines

Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.

November

TUE 3

Alaska 2026 general election

November

WED 3

Prediction market closes

Latest Election News

Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.

AINews Summary

Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan used a Kodiak debate to clash over fisheries and energy issues. The race remains closely watched, with turnout in the general election seen as potentially decisive. Outside groups are also pouring money into Alaska and other competitive Senate contests. The debate and turnout focus keep the race competitive and may reinforce uncertainty. Outside spending could modestly help Sullivan, but the overall effect is still mixed.

Articles

CCNBC2 days ago

Trump MAGA Inc. $403 million war chest spending in 2026 midterms

Democratic Senate candidates entered summer with a cash edge, while Trump-linked groups now pour money into increasingly crowded and costly ad markets.

NNewsweek3 days ago

Peltola vs. Sullivan Polls Send Warning to GOP in State Trump Won 3 Times

Polls show Mary Peltola leading Dan Sullivan in Alaska, sending a warning to Republicans in a state Trump won three times.

PPOLITICO1 day ago

The Content Creators Turned Democratic Operatives

Democrats are turning influencers into an essential part of their midterm strategy. But the party hasn't figured out the rules of engagement.

TPThe Philadelphia Inquirer4 days ago

Trump plans blitz of $138 million and counting to save midterm Republicans

A new super PAC that The New York Times previously reported was linked to MAGA Inc., No Going Back PAC Inc., has booked more than $95 million worth of ads.

TBThe Boston Herald3 days ago

Ohio voters rejected Sherrod Brown. Will he get a second chance?

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown is asking Ohio voters to send him back to Congress instead of Jon Husted just two years after they rejected him.

CNCable News Network25 days ago

Alaska’s Senate race will feature two Dan Sullivans and Mary Peltola, CNN projects

Two Dan Sullivans will be on the ballot in November for Alaska’s Senate seat, CNN’s Decision Desk projects, an outcome that could benefit Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola’s bid to flip the seat.

BNBreitbart News Network26 days ago

Republican with same name as incumbent Dan Sullivan advances from Alaska US Senate primary

JUNEAU, Alaska (AP) — A candidate with the same name as Alaska’s incumbent U.S. senator advanced Tuesday to the general election in what will

TAThe Associated Press1 month ago

Parties are looking past Alaska's primary to pivotal matchups in the fall

A U.S. Senate contest featuring a former congresswoman and a challenger with the same name as the incumbent headlines Alaska's primary.

WCWDIV ClickOnDetroit1 month ago

2 Dan Sullivans face off in Alaska's US Senate primary, which also features a former congresswoman

A U.S. Senate contest featuring a former congresswoman and a challenger with the same name as the incumbent headlines Alaska's primary.

TDThe Dallas Morning News4 months ago

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Sen. John Cornyn will support the “Republican ticket” in November, but he still believes Attorney General Ken Paxton is a crook who is unfit for office.

Latest Polls

Polling results and averages based on polls published between Jun 4, 2026 and Sep 17, 2026.

Polling Average

60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

49.0%

46.1%

M. Peltola

D. Sullivan

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Peltola	Sullivan
Polling Average	Peltola+2.9	49.0%	46.1%
co/efficientSep 14 - 17	Sullivan+2.0	46.0%	48.0%
co/efficientSep 14 - 17	Sullivan+3.0	46.0%	49.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchSep 8 - 11	Peltola+5.0	46.0%	41.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchSep 8 - 11	Peltola+6.0	51.0%	45.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchSep 8 - 11	Peltola+6.0	53.0%	47.0%
Alaska Survey ResearchAug 20 - 23	Peltola+1.2	50.6%	49.4%
Alaska Survey ResearchAug 2 - 5	Peltola+1.6	50.8%	49.2%
Data for ProgressJul 28 - Aug 4	Peltola+6.0	47.0%	41.0%
Data for ProgressJul 28 - Aug 4	Peltola+5.0	50.0%	45.0%
Data for ProgressJul 28 - Aug 4	Peltola+6.0	53.0%	47.0%
The New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 15 - 29	Sullivan+2.0	45.0%	47.0%
Alaska Survey ResearchJun 4 - 7	Peltola+5.2	49.4%	44.2%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Jul 29, 2026

$10M

$7.5M

$5M

$2.5M

D. Sullivan

M. Peltola

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

D. SullivanDan Sullivan

$9.14MContrib: $6.09M

$7.30MSpent: $3.93M

$207.0KLast period: $512.3K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

M. PeltolaMary Peltola

$152.3KContrib: $76.8K

$3.5KSpent: $232.8K

$16.6KLast period: -$1.9K

TERMINATION REPORT · Feb 13, 2026

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

Endorsements

2026 Alaska Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

Alaska Senate winner? (Person)

Race Snapshot

OddsLive Odds

Odds History

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Election News

Trump MAGA Inc. $403 million war chest spending in 2026 midterms

Peltola vs. Sullivan Polls Send Warning to GOP in State Trump Won 3 Times

The Content Creators Turned Democratic Operatives

Trump plans blitz of $138 million and counting to save midterm Republicans

Ohio voters rejected Sherrod Brown. Will he get a second chance?

Alaska’s Senate race will feature two Dan Sullivans and Mary Peltola, CNN projects

Republican with same name as incumbent Dan Sullivan advances from Alaska US Senate primary

Parties are looking past Alaska's primary to pivotal matchups in the fall

2 Dan Sullivans face off in Alaska's US Senate primary, which also features a former congresswoman

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Latest Polls

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Alaska Senate winner?

Alaska Governor winner? (Person)

Alaska Governor winner? (Party)

Alaska House winner?

Race Snapshot

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Election News

Trump MAGA Inc. $403 million war chest spending in 2026 midterms

Peltola vs. Sullivan Polls Send Warning to GOP in State Trump Won 3 Times

The Content Creators Turned Democratic Operatives

Trump plans blitz of $138 million and counting to save midterm Republicans

Ohio voters rejected Sherrod Brown. Will he get a second chance?

Alaska’s Senate race will feature two Dan Sullivans and Mary Peltola, CNN projects

Republican with same name as incumbent Dan Sullivan advances from Alaska US Senate primary

Parties are looking past Alaska's primary to pivotal matchups in the fall

2 Dan Sullivans face off in Alaska's US Senate primary, which also features a former congresswoman

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Latest Polls

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Alaska Senate winner?

Alaska Governor winner? (Person)

Alaska Governor winner? (Party)

Alaska House winner?