Discovery Insights Elections Candidates Calendar Watchlist

ActiveGeneral Election

2026 Alaska Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

Name: 2026 Alaska Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates — prediction market odds
Creator: kalshi

Election Day: Nov 3, 2026Market closes: Nov 6, 11:59pm ET (Nov 7, 4:59am UTC)

Alaska Senate winner? (Person)

$127.3K

NOV 3, 2026

General Election

Voters choose the office holder.

Deposit $20, get $50 on Polymarket

Race Snapshot

Compare the candidates' live odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated Aug 14, 2026, 11:23 PM UTC.

Candidate	Live odds	Poll average	Funds raised
Mary Peltola	55%	49.0%	$152.3K
Dan Sullivan	47%	45.3%	$9.14M
Dan Sullivan	1%	45.3%	$9.14M
Ann Diener	1%	2.4%	—

OddsLive Odds

Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 14, 2026, 11:23 PM UTC.

Odds History

Total volume

$127.3K

24h volume

$1.1K

M. Peltola55%

D. Sullivan47%

D. Sullivan1%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Election Dates and Deadlines

Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.

August

TUE 18

Alaska 2026 primary

November

TUE 3

Alaska 2026 general election

November

FRI 6

Prediction market closes

Latest Race Updates

Key developments affecting the candidates, polls and prediction market odds.

Alaska Senate winner? (Person)

Dan Sullivan has raised $9,136,966.96 this cycle, while Mary Peltola holds the lead in the latest odds for Alaska Senate winner? (Person).

44%

Latest Election News

Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.

AINews Summary

The biggest Alaska development is that Dan J. Sullivan will stay on the ballot after a court ruling. That keeps the same-name candidate in the race alongside incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola. The contest remains one of the Senate races being watched for control of the chamber. The court ruling keeps the ballot unusual and may add some uncertainty, but it does not by itself change the race’s basic lineup. The market should mainly treat this as a modest source of confusion rather than a clear boost to either side.

Articles

ADAnchorage Daily News6 hours ago

Opinion: The duality of Alaska’s U.S. Senate race

It’s fair to ask our U.S. Senate candidates where they stand on fundamental matters.

NNewsweek3 days ago

Keisha Lance Bottoms Chances of Defeating GOP to Win Georgia Governor Race

Keisha Lance Bottoms narrowly leads in Georgia governor poll, but the race remains within the margin of error.

ESEUROPE SAYS6 hours ago

Super PACs try to game Alaska’s open primary for U.S. Senate by elevating political unknowns

Green Party Senate candidate Richard Grayson knows flyers with his name and face are clogging mailboxes around Alaska. But he doesn’t get them. He lives in

ADAnchorage Daily News7 hours ago

Opinion: Alaska fishermen deserve a senator who fights for us, not the Lower 48 factory fleet

The future of Alaska’s fisheries depends on who holds power in Washington.

TDThe Dallas Morning News2 months ago

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Sen. John Cornyn will support the “Republican ticket” in November, but he still believes Attorney General Ken Paxton is a crook who is unfit for office.

NNNBC News3 months ago

Trump’s May primary scorecard: From the Politics Desk

In today’s edition, we take stock of President Donald Trump’s retribution campaign this month as Ken Paxton and James Talarico look ahead to the general election in Texas.

TDThe Dallas Morning News3 months ago

Decision day in Senate GOP runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton

Decision day in Senate Republican runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton, ending one of the state's nastiest campaigns.

SIStaten Island Advance3 months ago

Trump tightens grip on GOP with ‘disloyal’ Republican senator’s stunning defeat

“His disloyalty to the man who got him elected is now a part of legend, and it’s nice to see that his political career is OVER!”

NNewsweek19 days ago

Can Democrats Flip the Senate? Chances 100 Days From Midterms

Democrats eye Senate gains in key battlegrounds, but holding Michigan could be crucial to winning a majority.

TDThe Daily Beast1 month ago

Voter Backlash Revealed in Key States Trump Won in 2024

Democrats are in striking distance of Republican incumbents in a series of Senate races that will be crucial in the midterms.

Latest Polls

Polling results and averages based on polls published between Oct 17, 2025 and Aug 5, 2026.

Polling Average

60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

49.0%

45.3%

M. Peltola

D. Sullivan

S. Hill

A. Diener

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Peltola	Sullivan	Hill	Diener
Polling Average	Peltola+3.7	49.0%	45.3%	3.2%	2.4%
Alaska Survey ResearchAug 2 - 5	Peltola+1.6	50.8%	49.2%	–	–
The New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 15 - 29	Sullivan+2.0	45.0%	47.0%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchJun 4 - 7	Peltola+5.2	49.4%	44.2%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchMay 14 - 17	Peltola+4.6	48.4%	43.8%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchApr 16 - 19	Peltola+6.6	49.1%	42.5%	3.2%	–
Alaska Survey ResearchApr 16 - 19	Peltola+6.6	50.2%	43.6%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchMar 19 - 22	Peltola+5.3	48.8%	43.5%	–	2.4%
Alaska Survey ResearchMar 19 - 22	Peltola+6.6	50.4%	43.8%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchMar 19 - 22	Peltola+4.8	52.4%	47.6%	–	–
Public Policy PollingJan 16 - 17	Peltola+2.0	49.0%	47.0%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchJan 8 - 11	Peltola+1.6	48.0%	46.4%	–	–
Data for ProgressOct 17 - 23	Peltola+1.0	46.0%	45.0%	–	–

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Candidate Endorsements

Mary Peltola7

Richard Grayson1

United Auto Workers

Campaign Fundraising

Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Jul 29, 2026

$10M

$7.5M

$5M

$2.5M

D. Sullivan

M. Peltola

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

D. SullivanDan Sullivan

$9.14MContrib: $6.09M

$7.30MSpent: $3.93M

$207.0KLast period: $512.3K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

M. PeltolaMary Peltola

$152.3KContrib: $76.8K

$3.5KSpent: $232.8K

$16.6KLast period: -$1.9K

TERMINATION REPORT · Feb 13, 2026

Source: FEC

2026 Alaska Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

Alaska Senate winner? (Person)

Race Snapshot

OddsLive Odds

Odds History

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

Alaska Senate winner? (Person)

Latest Election News

Opinion: The duality of Alaska’s U.S. Senate race

Keisha Lance Bottoms Chances of Defeating GOP to Win Georgia Governor Race

Super PACs try to game Alaska’s open primary for U.S. Senate by elevating political unknowns

Opinion: Alaska fishermen deserve a senator who fights for us, not the Lower 48 factory fleet

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Trump’s May primary scorecard: From the Politics Desk

Decision day in Senate GOP runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton

Trump tightens grip on GOP with ‘disloyal’ Republican senator’s stunning defeat

Can Democrats Flip the Senate? Chances 100 Days From Midterms

Voter Backlash Revealed in Key States Trump Won in 2024

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Alaska Senate primary: 1st place

Alaska Senate winner?

Alaska Governor winner? (Person)

Alaska Governor winner? (Party)

Race Snapshot

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

Alaska Senate winner? (Person)

Latest Election News

Opinion: The duality of Alaska’s U.S. Senate race

Keisha Lance Bottoms Chances of Defeating GOP to Win Georgia Governor Race

Super PACs try to game Alaska’s open primary for U.S. Senate by elevating political unknowns

Opinion: Alaska fishermen deserve a senator who fights for us, not the Lower 48 factory fleet

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Trump’s May primary scorecard: From the Politics Desk

Decision day in Senate GOP runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton

Trump tightens grip on GOP with ‘disloyal’ Republican senator’s stunning defeat

Can Democrats Flip the Senate? Chances 100 Days From Midterms

Voter Backlash Revealed in Key States Trump Won in 2024

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Alaska Senate primary: 1st place

Alaska Senate winner?

Alaska Governor winner? (Person)

Alaska Governor winner? (Party)