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2026 Alaska Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

Name: 2026 Alaska Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates — prediction market odds
Creator: kalshi

Election Day: Nov 3, 2026Market closes: Nov 6, 11:59pm ET (Nov 7, 4:59am UTC)Last updated: Aug 7, 2026, 12:53 PM UTC

Alaska Senate winner? (Person)

$124.3K

NOV 7, 2026

General Election

Voters choose the office holder.

Deposit $20, get $50 on Polymarket

Race Snapshot

Compare the candidates' live odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated Aug 7, 2026, 12:53 PM UTC.

Candidate	Live odds	Poll average	Funds raised
Mary PeltolaDemocratic	57%	48.7%	$152.3K
Dan SullivanRepublican	48%	45.0%	$8.50M
Dan SullivanRepublican	2%	45.0%	$8.50M
Ann Diener	1%	2.4%	—
Richard GraysonDemocratic	0%	—	—
Sid HillIndependent	0%	3.2%	—

OddsLive Odds

Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 7, 2026, 12:53 PM UTC.

Odds History

Total volume

$124.3K

24h volume

$45

M. Peltola57%

D. Sullivan48%

D. Sullivan2%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Election Dates and Deadlines

Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.

August

TUE 18

Alaska 2026 primary

November

TUE 3

Alaska 2026 general election

November

FRI 6

Prediction market closes

Latest Election News

Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.

AINews Summary

The biggest Alaska development is that Dan J. Sullivan will stay on the ballot after a court ruling. That keeps the same-name candidate in the race alongside incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola. The contest remains one of the Senate races being watched for control of the chamber. The court ruling keeps the ballot unusual and may add some uncertainty, but it does not by itself change the race’s basic lineup. The market should mainly treat this as a modest source of confusion rather than a clear boost to either side.

Articles

ADAnchorage Daily News15 hours ago

Saturday is the deadline to request an absentee by-mail ballot in Alaska’s primary election

Plus, a look at what’s on the ballot, how to apply to vote absentee and in-person voting options.

WEWashington Examiner2 days ago

Byron York says GOP losing four seats 'unlikely, but still possible'

Byron York warned that while Republicans are favored to hold the Senate in 2026, the party’s narrow path to maintaining its majority has become precarious.

ADAnchorage Daily News14 hours ago

Opinion: I’m a caregiver. Sen. Dan Sullivan won’t answer my questions about Medicaid cuts.

Alaska families depend on Medicaid to care for children, seniors, veterans and people with disabilities, but the senator won’t meet with constituents to discuss it.

TDThe Dallas Morning News2 months ago

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Sen. John Cornyn will support the “Republican ticket” in November, but he still believes Attorney General Ken Paxton is a crook who is unfit for office.

NNNBC News2 months ago

Trump’s May primary scorecard: From the Politics Desk

In today’s edition, we take stock of President Donald Trump’s retribution campaign this month as Ken Paxton and James Talarico look ahead to the general election in Texas.

TDThe Dallas Morning News2 months ago

Decision day in Senate GOP runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton

Decision day in Senate Republican runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton, ending one of the state's nastiest campaigns.

SIStaten Island Advance3 months ago

Trump tightens grip on GOP with ‘disloyal’ Republican senator’s stunning defeat

“His disloyalty to the man who got him elected is now a part of legend, and it’s nice to see that his political career is OVER!”

NNewsweek12 days ago

Can Democrats Flip the Senate? Chances 100 Days From Midterms

Democrats eye Senate gains in key battlegrounds, but holding Michigan could be crucial to winning a majority.

NNewsweek8 days ago

Republicans Handed Worrisome Signs in New North Carolina Senate Poll

The Tar Heel State's contest is critical, as it will likely help determine control of the U.S. Senate.

TDThe Daily Beast1 month ago

Voter Backlash Revealed in Key States Trump Won in 2024

Democrats are in striking distance of Republican incumbents in a series of Senate races that will be crucial in the midterms.

Latest Polls

Polling results and averages based on polls published between Oct 10, 2025 and Jun 29, 2026.

Polling Average

60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

48.7%

45.0%

M. Peltola

D. Sullivan

S. Hill

A. Diener

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Peltola	Sullivan	Hill	Diener
Polling Average	Peltola+3.7	48.7%	45.0%	3.2%	2.4%
The New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 15 - 29	Sullivan+2.0	45.0%	47.0%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchJun 4 - 7	Peltola+5.2	49.4%	44.2%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchMay 14 - 17	Peltola+4.6	48.4%	43.8%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchApr 16 - 19	Peltola+6.6	49.1%	42.5%	3.2%	–
Alaska Survey ResearchApr 16 - 19	Peltola+6.6	50.2%	43.6%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchMar 19 - 22	Peltola+5.3	48.8%	43.5%	–	2.4%
Alaska Survey ResearchMar 19 - 22	Peltola+6.6	50.4%	43.8%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchMar 19 - 22	Peltola+4.8	52.4%	47.6%	–	–
Public Policy PollingJan 16 - 17	Peltola+2.0	49.0%	47.0%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchJan 8 - 11	Peltola+1.6	48.0%	46.4%	–	–
Data for ProgressOct 17 - 23	Peltola+1.0	46.0%	45.0%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchOct 10 - 15	Peltola+1.8	47.7%	45.9%	–	–

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Candidate Endorsements

Notable endorsements from elected officials, organizations and public figures.

Mary Peltola

Alaska AFL-CIO

The Alaska AFL-CIO endorsed Mary Peltola.

Learn more

EMILYs List

EMILYs List endorsed Mary Peltola in Alaska's U.S. Senate race.

Learn more

Reproductive Freedom for All

Reproductive Freedom for All endorsed Mary Peltola as a reproductive freedom champion for U.S. Senate.

Learn more

David Hogg

David Hogg endorsed Mary Peltola for U.S. Senate.

Learn more

End Citizens United

End Citizens United endorsed Mary Peltola for Alaska Senate.

Learn more

Lisa Murkowski

Lisa Murkowski endorsed Mary Peltola.

Learn more

Richard Grayson

United Auto Workers

United Auto Workers endorsed Richard Grayson

Learn more

Campaign Fundraising

Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Jun 30, 2026

$10M

$7.5M

$5M

$2.5M

D. Sullivan

M. Peltola

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

D. SullivanDan Sullivan

$8.50MContrib: $5.58M

$8.30MSpent: $2.29M

$127.2KLast period: $1.58M

JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026

M. PeltolaMary Peltola

$152.3KContrib: $76.8K

$3.5KSpent: $232.8K

$16.6KLast period: -$1.9K

TERMINATION REPORT · Feb 13, 2026

Source: FEC

2026 Alaska Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

Alaska Senate winner? (Person)

Race Snapshot

OddsLive Odds

Odds History

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Election News

Saturday is the deadline to request an absentee by-mail ballot in Alaska’s primary election

Byron York says GOP losing four seats 'unlikely, but still possible'

Opinion: I’m a caregiver. Sen. Dan Sullivan won’t answer my questions about Medicaid cuts.

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Trump’s May primary scorecard: From the Politics Desk

Decision day in Senate GOP runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton

Trump tightens grip on GOP with ‘disloyal’ Republican senator’s stunning defeat

Can Democrats Flip the Senate? Chances 100 Days From Midterms

Republicans Handed Worrisome Signs in New North Carolina Senate Poll

Voter Backlash Revealed in Key States Trump Won in 2024

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Alaska Senate primary: 1st place

Alaska Senate winner?

Alaska Governor winner? (Person)

Alaska Governor winner? (Party)

Race Snapshot

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Election News

Saturday is the deadline to request an absentee by-mail ballot in Alaska’s primary election

Byron York says GOP losing four seats 'unlikely, but still possible'

Opinion: I’m a caregiver. Sen. Dan Sullivan won’t answer my questions about Medicaid cuts.

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Trump’s May primary scorecard: From the Politics Desk

Decision day in Senate GOP runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton

Trump tightens grip on GOP with ‘disloyal’ Republican senator’s stunning defeat

Can Democrats Flip the Senate? Chances 100 Days From Midterms

Republicans Handed Worrisome Signs in New North Carolina Senate Poll

Voter Backlash Revealed in Key States Trump Won in 2024

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Alaska Senate primary: 1st place

Alaska Senate winner?

Alaska Governor winner? (Person)

Alaska Governor winner? (Party)