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2026 Alaska Governor Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

Name: 2026 Alaska Governor Election Polls, Odds & Candidates — prediction market odds
Creator: kalshi

Election Day: Nov 3, 2026Market closes: Nov 3, 11:00am ET (Nov 3, 3:00pm UTC)

Alaska Governor winner? (Person)

$658.5K

NOV 3, 2026

General Election

Voters choose the office holder.

Deposit $20, get $50 on Polymarket

Race Snapshot

Compare the candidates' live odds and polling averages. Updated Sep 21, 2026, 3:28 PM UTC.

Candidate	Live odds	Poll average
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	82%	—
Bernadette Wilson	12%	20.6%
Dave Bronson	4%	15.9%
Treg Taylor	2%	6.5%
Bill Walker	2%	—
Lesil McGuire	1%	—

OddsLive Odds

Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Sep 21, 2026, 3:28 PM UTC.

Odds History

Total volume

$658.5K

24h volume

$13.5K

J. Kreiss-Tomkins82%

B. Wilson12%

D. Bronson4%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Election Dates and Deadlines

Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.

November

TUE 3

Alaska 2026 general election

November

WED 3

Prediction market closes

Latest Election News

Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.

AINews Summary

Early Alaska gubernatorial primary counts have Democrats Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Tom Begich leading. But thousands of ballots are still outstanding, and the final November ballot could change if candidates drop out before the deadline. The lineup may not be settled until certification on Aug. 31. The race remains unsettled, with the current count favoring two Democrats but no final ballot lineup yet. That keeps uncertainty high for the governor market until certification and possible dropouts are resolved.

Articles

PPOLITICO2 days ago

The Content Creators Turned Democratic Operatives

Democrats are turning influencers into an essential part of their midterm strategy. But the party hasn't figured out the rules of engagement.

TBThe Boston Herald4 days ago

Ohio voters rejected Sherrod Brown. Will he get a second chance?

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown is asking Ohio voters to send him back to Congress instead of Jon Husted just two years after they rejected him.

BNBreitbart News Network27 days ago

Republican with same name as incumbent Dan Sullivan advances from Alaska US Senate primary

JUNEAU, Alaska (AP) — A candidate with the same name as Alaska’s incumbent U.S. senator advanced Tuesday to the general election in what will

TAThe Associated Press1 month ago

Parties are looking past Alaska's primary to pivotal matchups in the fall

A U.S. Senate contest featuring a former congresswoman and a challenger with the same name as the incumbent headlines Alaska's primary.

WCWDIV ClickOnDetroit1 month ago

2 Dan Sullivans face off in Alaska's US Senate primary, which also features a former congresswoman

A U.S. Senate contest featuring a former congresswoman and a challenger with the same name as the incumbent headlines Alaska's primary.

CNCable News Network7 hours ago

Democrats scramble for more cash ahead of the midterms

Top Democrats across the country are privately warning that they do not have enough cash in the November midterm battle to capitalize on what could be their party’s best political environment in over a decade and are at serious risk of leaving winnable seats on the table.

NNewsweek26 days ago

Mary Peltola's Chances of Beating Dan Sullivans in Alaska

The Democrat leads in polls and betting markets, but a second candidate named Dan Sullivan could scramble Alaska's ranked-choice race.

NNewsweek1 month ago

AI Data Center War: Where Democrats, Republicans in Key Senate Races Stand

The AI backlash is now hitting the six Senate races that Cook Political Report rates as toss-ups heading into November.

ADAnchorage Daily News1 month ago

Top candidates in Alaska governor’s race say they are weighing a consolidated field as primary results come in

Early primary results show two Democrats and two Republicans advancing to the November ballot.

NNNBC News1 month ago

Live updates: GOP incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola to square off in Alaska Senate race

Get live updates and the latest news on the Trump administration and 2026 elections as Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola are set to face off in Alaska’s Senate race and Byron Donalds and David Jolly win their primaries in the Florida governor’s race.

Latest Polls

Polling results and averages based on polls published between Oct 17, 2025 and Sep 17, 2026.

Polling Average

50%40%30%20%10%0%

44.2%

20.6%

15.9%

12.2%

8.8%

7.5%

6.5%

5.3%

T. Begich

B. Wilson

D. Bronson

C. Bishop

S. Hughes

N. Dahlstrom

T. Taylor

A. Crum

E. DeVries

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Begich	Wilson	Bronson	Bishop	Hughes	Dahlstrom	Taylor	Crum	DeVries
Polling Average	Begich+23.6	44.2%	20.6%	15.9%	12.2%	8.8%	7.5%	6.5%	5.3%	3.0%
co/efficientSep 14 - 17	Wilson+3.0	–	20.0%	17.0%	–	–	–	6.0%	–	–
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchSep 8 - 11	Wilson+6.0	–	20.0%	14.0%	–	–	–	7.0%	–	–
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchSep 8 - 11	Wilson+7.0	–	28.0%	21.0%	–	–	–	–	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchApr 16 - 19	Begich+19.2	41.0%	21.8%	18.6%	18.7%	–	–	–	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchApr 16 - 19	Begich+13.0	43.9%	30.9%	–	25.2%	–	–	–	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchApr 16 - 19	Begich+7.8	53.9%	46.1%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Lake Research PartnersFeb 5 - 11	Begich+22.0	38.0%	16.0%	13.0%	8.0%	–	–	–	–	–
Data for ProgressOct 17 - 23	Bronson+1.0	–	12.0%	13.0%	4.0%	6.0%	7.0%	–	5.0%	3.0%
Data for ProgressOct 17 - 23	Wilson+0.0	–	13.0%	13.0%	5.0%	8.0%	7.0%	–	5.0%	–
Data for ProgressOct 17 - 23	Bronson+1.0	–	13.0%	14.0%	–	9.0%	8.0%	–	6.0%	–
Data for ProgressOct 17 - 23	Bronson+3.0	–	13.0%	16.0%	–	10.0%	8.0%	–	–	–
Data for ProgressOct 17 - 23	Bronson+5.0	–	14.0%	19.0%	–	11.0%	–	–	–	–

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Jun 30, 2026

$2M

$1.5M

$1M

$500K

L. Murkowski

M. Peltola

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

L. MurkowskiLisa Murkowski

$1.29MContrib: $1.23M

$1.52MSpent: $381.0K

$21.2KLast period: $200.8K

JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026

M. PeltolaMary Peltola

$152.3KContrib: $76.8K

$3.5KSpent: $232.8K

$16.6KLast period: -$1.9K

TERMINATION REPORT · Feb 13, 2026

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

Endorsements

2026 Alaska Governor Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

Alaska Governor winner? (Person)

Race Snapshot

OddsLive Odds

Odds History

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Election News

The Content Creators Turned Democratic Operatives

Ohio voters rejected Sherrod Brown. Will he get a second chance?

Republican with same name as incumbent Dan Sullivan advances from Alaska US Senate primary

Parties are looking past Alaska's primary to pivotal matchups in the fall

2 Dan Sullivans face off in Alaska's US Senate primary, which also features a former congresswoman

Democrats scramble for more cash ahead of the midterms

Mary Peltola's Chances of Beating Dan Sullivans in Alaska

AI Data Center War: Where Democrats, Republicans in Key Senate Races Stand

Top candidates in Alaska governor’s race say they are weighing a consolidated field as primary results come in

Live updates: GOP incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola to square off in Alaska Senate race

Latest Polls

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Alaska Senate winner?

Alaska Senate winner? (Person)

Alaska Governor winner? (Party)

Alaska House winner?

Race Snapshot

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Election News

The Content Creators Turned Democratic Operatives

Ohio voters rejected Sherrod Brown. Will he get a second chance?

Republican with same name as incumbent Dan Sullivan advances from Alaska US Senate primary

Parties are looking past Alaska's primary to pivotal matchups in the fall

2 Dan Sullivans face off in Alaska's US Senate primary, which also features a former congresswoman

Democrats scramble for more cash ahead of the midterms

Mary Peltola's Chances of Beating Dan Sullivans in Alaska

AI Data Center War: Where Democrats, Republicans in Key Senate Races Stand

Top candidates in Alaska governor’s race say they are weighing a consolidated field as primary results come in

Live updates: GOP incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola to square off in Alaska Senate race

Latest Polls

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Alaska Senate winner?

Alaska Senate winner? (Person)

Alaska Governor winner? (Party)

Alaska House winner?