Prediction Edge
ClosedGeneral Election

2026 Alaska Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

Election Day: Recorded market close:

Odds

Odds History

Total volume

$6.8M

24h volume

$651.7K

D
D. party70%
R
R. party31%

source: Kalshi

Politics IQ

Structural race context from reviewed jurisdiction data

Alaska · US Senate

Lean RepublicanNot a core swing state

State Lean

Lean Republican

Not a core swing state

Primary System

Party primary or state-specific

No primary runoff

Election Rules

Primary Aug 18, 2026

Runoff: No

General: Nov 3, 2026

Sources reviewed May 2, 2026 · U.S. Senate, Class II senators · U.S. Senate, current senator list · 270toWin/Cook · NCSL

Election Dates and Deadlines

Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.

November

TUE 3

Alaska 2026 general election

November

FRI 6

Prediction market closes

Latest Election News

Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.

AINews Summary

Republican-aligned groups are pouring millions into Alaska and other battleground Senate races. Earlier polling cited in coverage showed Mary Peltola narrowly ahead of Dan Sullivan, keeping the seat highly competitive. The race remains one of the Democrats’ clearest pickup chances. Heavy outside spending suggests Republicans are trying to shore up a vulnerable seat, but the polling cited still points to a close race. The market likely stays competitive with a slight uncertainty boost.

Articles
MLM Live Michigan 1 day ago

Senate midterms 2026: Latest polls show GOP trouble in battleground states

In order to flip the Senate, Democrats need to keep control of their 47 seats and gain four more.

SSlate2 days ago

This Wasn’t Supposed to Be Senate Democrats’ Year. Here’s What Changed.

The party is in the midst of a remarkable comeback—mostly thanks to one man.

ADAnchorage Daily News22 hours ago

Alaskans are preparing for a high-stakes Election Day on Tuesday. Here’s what to know.

Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Election Day. While early results will start rolling in Tuesday night, the final outcome for more competitive races might not be known until ranked choice tabulation takes place Nov. 18.

N5NBC 5 Chicago1 day ago

Election 2026: Races to watch in the House, Senate

The 2026 election is nearly here, and battles for control of the U.S. Senate and House are continuing to heat up

UNU.S. News & World Report2 days ago

The Latest: Democrat Who Lost Michigan Senate Primary Backs Republican in General Election Contest

Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s former opponent in the U.S. Senate primary, Haley Stevens, stunned party officials on Sunday by endorsing Republican Mike Rogers in the general election contest after Democratic tensions boiled over. The move came after Stevens was uninvited to a joint event the same day with El-Sayed as he campaigned for the Michigan seat. The outcome could help determine the balance of power on Capitol Hill.

BNBreitbart News Network1 day ago

Democrats’ Alaska Ballot Operation Went Beyond ‘Decoy Dan’ Candidate

Washington Democrats didn’t just put a second “Dan Sullivan” in the Alaska Senate race — they also boosted Republican Gerald Heikes, a perennial candidate for office, with the help of Chuck Schumer and a longtime Alaska Democrat consultant named Jim Lottsfeldt in a year-long effort to boost Democrat Mary Peltola in Tuesday’s general election. | Politics

BSBaltimore Sun1 day ago

Dan Sullivan episode takes ominous turn as FBI comes knocking in Alaska

The Trump administration weighs criminal charges over potential "ballot stacking" in the Alaska Senate race's Dan Sullivan saga.

Latest Polls

Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
48.6%
45.9%
M. Peltola
D. Sullivan
S. Hill
A. Diener
Date (Start - End)SpreadPeltolaSullivanHillDiener
Polling Average
Peltola+2.6
48.6%45.9%3.2%2.4%
AtlasIntelOct 28 - Nov 1
Peltola+5.5
50.1%44.6%––
InsiderAdvantageOct 31 - Nov 1
Peltola+0.2
48.3%48.1%––
InsiderAdvantageOct 31 - Nov 1
Peltola+0.2
50.1%49.9%––
The New York Times/Siena UniversityOct 23 - 30
Peltola+2.0
48.0%46.0%––
Alaska Survey ResearchOct 26 - 29
Peltola+1.1
48.2%47.1%––
Alaska Survey ResearchOct 26 - 29
Peltola+1.8
47.7%45.9%––
Alaska Survey ResearchOct 26 - 29
Peltola+1.6
50.8%49.2%––
Data for ProgressOct 8 - 16
Peltola+3.0
47.0%44.0%––
Data for ProgressOct 8 - 16
Peltola+3.0
49.0%46.0%––
Data for ProgressOct 8 - 16
Peltola+2.0
51.0%49.0%––
Public Policy PollingOct 14 - 15
Peltola+1.0
48.0%47.0%––
InsiderAdvantageOct 9 - 10
Peltola+2.1
50.1%48.0%––
InsiderAdvantageOct 9 - 10
Peltola+5.6
48.2%42.6%––
Alaska Survey ResearchOct 1 - 3
Peltola+1.0
48.0%47.0%––
Alaska Survey ResearchOct 1 - 3
Peltola+2.0
47.0%45.0%––
Alaska Survey ResearchOct 1 - 3
Peltola+2.0
51.0%49.0%––
The New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 24 - Oct 1
Peltola+7.0
50.0%43.0%––
Quantus InsightsSep 28 - 30
Sullivan+0.6
47.2%47.8%––
Quantus InsightsSep 28 - 30
Sullivan+0.3
46.5%46.8%––
Trafalgar GroupSep 22 - 24
Sullivan+1.3
45.5%46.8%––
co/efficientSep 14 - 17
Sullivan+2.0
46.0%48.0%––
co/efficientSep 14 - 17
Sullivan+3.0
46.0%49.0%––
Alaska Survey ResearchSep 10 - 12
Peltola+4.6
48.4%43.8%––
Alaska Survey ResearchSep 10 - 12
Peltola+5.2
50.0%44.8%––
Alaska Survey ResearchSep 10 - 12
Peltola+3.8
51.9%48.1%––
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchSep 8 - 11
Peltola+5.0
46.0%41.0%––
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchSep 8 - 11
Peltola+6.0
53.0%47.0%––
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchSep 8 - 11
Peltola+6.0
51.0%45.0%––
Alaska Survey ResearchAug 20 - 23
Peltola+1.2
50.6%49.4%––
Alaska Survey ResearchAug 2 - 5
Peltola+1.6
50.8%49.2%––
Data for ProgressJul 28 - Aug 4
Peltola+6.0
47.0%41.0%––
Data for ProgressJul 28 - Aug 4
Peltola+6.0
53.0%47.0%––
Data for ProgressJul 28 - Aug 4
Peltola+5.0
50.0%45.0%––
The New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 15 - 29
Sullivan+2.0
45.0%47.0%––
Alaska Survey ResearchJun 4 - 7
Peltola+5.2
49.4%44.2%––
Alaska Survey ResearchMay 14 - 17
Peltola+4.6
48.4%43.8%––
Alaska Survey ResearchApr 16 - 19
Peltola+6.6
49.1%42.5%3.2%–
Alaska Survey ResearchApr 16 - 19
Peltola+6.6
50.2%43.6%––
Alaska Survey ResearchMar 19 - 22
Peltola+5.3
48.8%43.5%–2.4%
Alaska Survey ResearchMar 19 - 22
Peltola+4.8
52.4%47.6%––
Alaska Survey ResearchMar 19 - 22
Peltola+6.6
50.4%43.8%––
Public Policy PollingJan 16 - 17
Peltola+2.0
49.0%47.0%––
Alaska Survey ResearchJan 8 - 11
Peltola+1.6
48.0%46.4%––
Data for ProgressOct 17 - 23
Peltola+1.0
46.0%45.0%––
Alaska Survey ResearchOct 10 - 15
Peltola+1.8
47.7%45.9%––
Alaska Survey ResearchJul 29 - Aug 1
Sullivan+4.2
42.5%46.7%––
Data for ProgressJul 21 - 27
Sullivan+1.0
45.0%46.0%––
Alaska Survey ResearchApr 21 - 25
Peltola+3.0
44.0%41.0%––

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Saved Kalshi settlement results

These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.

Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.

Alaska Senate winner?

No verified final result is available for this race.

  • Democratic party

    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Alaska?

    Settlement pending

  • Republican party

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Alaska?

    Settlement pending