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2026 Alaska Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

Name: 2026 Alaska Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates — prediction market odds
Creator: kalshi

Election Day: Nov 3, 2026Market closes: Nov 6, 11:59pm ET (Nov 7, 4:59am UTC)Last updated: Aug 6, 2026, 9:53 AM UTC

Alaska Senate winner?

$484.7K

NOV 7, 2026

General Election

Voters choose the office holder.

D. Party

54.0%

R. Party

46.0%

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OddsLive Odds

Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 6, 2026, 9:53 AM UTC.

Odds History

Total volume

$484.7K

24h volume

$2.3K

D. Party54%

R. Party46%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Election Dates and Deadlines

Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.

August

TUE 18

Alaska 2026 primary

November

TUE 3

Alaska 2026 general election

November

FRI 6

Prediction market closes

Latest Election News

Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.

AINews Summary

Alaska’s Senate race got a notable ballot ruling: Dan J. Sullivan will stay on the primary ballot after court action overturned efforts to remove him. The race is still being viewed as potentially important to Senate control in 2026. The ballot ruling keeps the race’s field intact and may add some uncertainty around the primary. The broader control-fight framing suggests Alaska remains a race traders may watch closely.

Articles

WEWashington Examiner21 hours ago

Byron York says GOP losing four seats 'unlikely, but still possible'

Byron York warned that while Republicans are favored to hold the Senate in 2026, the party’s narrow path to maintaining its majority has become precarious.

TDThe Dallas Morning News2 months ago

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Sen. John Cornyn will support the “Republican ticket” in November, but he still believes Attorney General Ken Paxton is a crook who is unfit for office.

TDThe Dallas Morning News2 months ago

Decision day in Senate GOP runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton

Decision day in Senate Republican runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton, ending one of the state's nastiest campaigns.

SIStaten Island Advance3 months ago

Trump tightens grip on GOP with ‘disloyal’ Republican senator’s stunning defeat

“His disloyalty to the man who got him elected is now a part of legend, and it’s nice to see that his political career is OVER!”

NNewsweek11 days ago

Can Democrats Flip the Senate? Chances 100 Days From Midterms

Democrats eye Senate gains in key battlegrounds, but holding Michigan could be crucial to winning a majority.

NNewsweek7 days ago

Republicans Handed Worrisome Signs in New North Carolina Senate Poll

The Tar Heel State's contest is critical, as it will likely help determine control of the U.S. Senate.

NNewsweek4 days ago

Trump’s Approval Rating Is Underwater in 11 States He Won Comfortably

The president's approval rating in 11 states that he carried by double-digit margins in the 2024 election, according to Civiqs.

TDThe Daily Beast1 month ago

Voter Backlash Revealed in Key States Trump Won in 2024

Democrats are in striking distance of Republican incumbents in a series of Senate races that will be crucial in the midterms.

UNU.S. News & World Report1 month ago

Man With Same Name as US Sen. Dan Sullivan Is Eligible for Alaska's Primary Ballot, Judge Rules

JUNEAU, Alaska (AP) — A man with the same name and party affiliation as Alaska Republican U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan is eligible for the August primary and can appear on the ballot, a judge ruled Friday.

NNNBC News2 months ago

Live updates: Trump to nominate Todd Blanche for attorney general

Get live updates and the latest news as Trump plans to nominate Todd Blanche for attorney general and the Senate begins voting on amendments to ICE and Border Patrol funding.

Latest Polls

Polling results and averages based on polls published between Oct 10, 2025 and Jun 29, 2026.

Polling Average

60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

48.7%

45.0%

M. Peltola

D. Sullivan

S. Hill

A. Diener

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Peltola	Sullivan	Hill	Diener
Polling Average	Peltola+3.7	48.7%	45.0%	3.2%	2.4%
The New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 15 - 29	Sullivan+2.0	45.0%	47.0%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchJun 4 - 7	Peltola+5.2	49.4%	44.2%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchMay 14 - 17	Peltola+4.6	48.4%	43.8%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchApr 16 - 19	Peltola+6.6	49.1%	42.5%	3.2%	–
Alaska Survey ResearchApr 16 - 19	Peltola+6.6	50.2%	43.6%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchMar 19 - 22	Peltola+5.3	48.8%	43.5%	–	2.4%
Alaska Survey ResearchMar 19 - 22	Peltola+6.6	50.4%	43.8%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchMar 19 - 22	Peltola+4.8	52.4%	47.6%	–	–
Public Policy PollingJan 16 - 17	Peltola+2.0	49.0%	47.0%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchJan 8 - 11	Peltola+1.6	48.0%	46.4%	–	–
Data for ProgressOct 17 - 23	Peltola+1.0	46.0%	45.0%	–	–
Alaska Survey ResearchOct 10 - 15	Peltola+1.8	47.7%	45.9%	–	–

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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2026 Alaska Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

Alaska Senate winner?

OddsLive Odds

Odds History

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Election News

Byron York says GOP losing four seats 'unlikely, but still possible'

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Decision day in Senate GOP runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton

Trump tightens grip on GOP with ‘disloyal’ Republican senator’s stunning defeat

Can Democrats Flip the Senate? Chances 100 Days From Midterms

Republicans Handed Worrisome Signs in New North Carolina Senate Poll

Trump’s Approval Rating Is Underwater in 11 States He Won Comfortably

Voter Backlash Revealed in Key States Trump Won in 2024

Man With Same Name as US Sen. Dan Sullivan Is Eligible for Alaska's Primary Ballot, Judge Rules

Live updates: Trump to nominate Todd Blanche for attorney general

Latest Polls

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Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Election News

Byron York says GOP losing four seats 'unlikely, but still possible'

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Decision day in Senate GOP runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton

Trump tightens grip on GOP with ‘disloyal’ Republican senator’s stunning defeat

Can Democrats Flip the Senate? Chances 100 Days From Midterms

Republicans Handed Worrisome Signs in New North Carolina Senate Poll

Trump’s Approval Rating Is Underwater in 11 States He Won Comfortably

Voter Backlash Revealed in Key States Trump Won in 2024

Man With Same Name as US Sen. Dan Sullivan Is Eligible for Alaska's Primary Ballot, Judge Rules

Live updates: Trump to nominate Todd Blanche for attorney general

Latest Polls

Related Races

Alaska Governor winner? (Person)

Alaska Senate winner? (Person)

Alaska Governor winner? (Party)

Alaska House winner?