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2026 Alaska Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

Name: 2026 Alaska Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates — prediction market odds
Creator: kalshi

Election Day: Nov 3, 2026Market closes: Nov 6, 11:59pm ET (Nov 7, 4:59am UTC)

Alaska Senate winner?

$1.1M

NOV 3, 2026

General Election

Voters choose the office holder.

D. Party

70.0%

R. Party

30.0%

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OddsLive Odds

Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Sep 21, 2026, 10:58 AM UTC.

Odds History

Total volume

$1.1M

24h volume

$15.2K

D. Party70%

R. Party30%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Election Dates and Deadlines

Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.

November

TUE 3

Alaska 2026 general election

November

FRI 6

Prediction market closes

Latest Election News

Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.

AINews Summary

Republican-aligned groups are pouring millions into Alaska and other battleground Senate races. Earlier polling cited in coverage showed Mary Peltola narrowly ahead of Dan Sullivan, keeping the seat highly competitive. The race remains one of the Democrats’ clearest pickup chances. Heavy outside spending suggests Republicans are trying to shore up a vulnerable seat, but the polling cited still points to a close race. The market likely stays competitive with a slight uncertainty boost.

Articles

BSBaltimore Sun4 days ago

What if neither party controls the House or Senate? | GUEST COMMENTARY

Opinion: Though unlikely, if independents perform well in the midterms, neither party might control the U.S. Senate, writes Dave Anderson.

CCNBC3 days ago

Trump MAGA Inc. $403 million war chest spending in 2026 midterms

Democratic Senate candidates entered summer with a cash edge, while Trump-linked groups now pour money into increasingly crowded and costly ad markets.

NNewsweek4 days ago

Peltola vs. Sullivan Polls Send Warning to GOP in State Trump Won 3 Times

Polls show Mary Peltola leading Dan Sullivan in Alaska, sending a warning to Republicans in a state Trump won three times.

TGThe Gateway Pundit22 hours ago

CNN’s Harry Enton Warns Democrats: The Polls Have Grossly Underestimated GOP in 4 of Last 6 Elections! (Video)

CNN's Harry Enton delivered a dire warning to Democrats just weeks before the 2026 midterm elections.

PPOLITICO2 days ago

The Content Creators Turned Democratic Operatives

Democrats are turning influencers into an essential part of their midterm strategy. But the party hasn't figured out the rules of engagement.

TDThe Dallas Morning News4 months ago

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Sen. John Cornyn will support the “Republican ticket” in November, but he still believes Attorney General Ken Paxton is a crook who is unfit for office.

TDThe Dallas Morning News4 months ago

Decision day in Senate GOP runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton

Decision day in Senate Republican runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton, ending one of the state's nastiest campaigns.

SIStaten Island Advance4 months ago

Trump tightens grip on GOP with ‘disloyal’ Republican senator’s stunning defeat

“His disloyalty to the man who got him elected is now a part of legend, and it’s nice to see that his political career is OVER!”

ESEUROPE SAYS9 days ago

Trump, Musk super PACs spend millions to boost Republicans in key races

NEW YORK >> The two biggest Republican money players in the 2026 midterm elections – President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk – have turned on

NNewsweek26 days ago

Mary Peltola's Chances of Beating Dan Sullivans in Alaska

The Democrat leads in polls and betting markets, but a second candidate named Dan Sullivan could scramble Alaska's ranked-choice race.

Latest Polls

Polling results and averages based on polls published between Jun 4, 2026 and Sep 17, 2026.

Polling Average

60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

49.0%

46.1%

M. Peltola

D. Sullivan

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Peltola	Sullivan
Polling Average	Peltola+2.9	49.0%	46.1%
co/efficientSep 14 - 17	Sullivan+2.0	46.0%	48.0%
co/efficientSep 14 - 17	Sullivan+3.0	46.0%	49.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchSep 8 - 11	Peltola+5.0	46.0%	41.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchSep 8 - 11	Peltola+6.0	51.0%	45.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchSep 8 - 11	Peltola+6.0	53.0%	47.0%
Alaska Survey ResearchAug 20 - 23	Peltola+1.2	50.6%	49.4%
Alaska Survey ResearchAug 2 - 5	Peltola+1.6	50.8%	49.2%
Data for ProgressJul 28 - Aug 4	Peltola+6.0	47.0%	41.0%
Data for ProgressJul 28 - Aug 4	Peltola+5.0	50.0%	45.0%
Data for ProgressJul 28 - Aug 4	Peltola+6.0	53.0%	47.0%
The New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 15 - 29	Sullivan+2.0	45.0%	47.0%
Alaska Survey ResearchJun 4 - 7	Peltola+5.2	49.4%	44.2%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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2026 Alaska Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

Alaska Senate winner?

OddsLive Odds

Odds History

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Election News

What if neither party controls the House or Senate? | GUEST COMMENTARY

Trump MAGA Inc. $403 million war chest spending in 2026 midterms

Peltola vs. Sullivan Polls Send Warning to GOP in State Trump Won 3 Times

CNN’s Harry Enton Warns Democrats: The Polls Have Grossly Underestimated GOP in 4 of Last 6 Elections! (Video)

The Content Creators Turned Democratic Operatives

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Decision day in Senate GOP runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton

Trump tightens grip on GOP with ‘disloyal’ Republican senator’s stunning defeat

Trump, Musk super PACs spend millions to boost Republicans in key races

Mary Peltola's Chances of Beating Dan Sullivans in Alaska

Latest Polls

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Alaska Senate winner? (Person)

Alaska Governor winner? (Party)

Alaska House winner?

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Election News

What if neither party controls the House or Senate? | GUEST COMMENTARY

Trump MAGA Inc. $403 million war chest spending in 2026 midterms

Peltola vs. Sullivan Polls Send Warning to GOP in State Trump Won 3 Times

CNN’s Harry Enton Warns Democrats: The Polls Have Grossly Underestimated GOP in 4 of Last 6 Elections! (Video)

The Content Creators Turned Democratic Operatives

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Decision day in Senate GOP runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton

Trump tightens grip on GOP with ‘disloyal’ Republican senator’s stunning defeat

Trump, Musk super PACs spend millions to boost Republicans in key races

Mary Peltola's Chances of Beating Dan Sullivans in Alaska

Latest Polls

Related Races

Alaska Governor winner? (Person)

Alaska Senate winner? (Person)

Alaska Governor winner? (Party)

Alaska House winner?