Discovery Insights Elections Candidates Calendar Watchlist

ActivePrimary ElectionRepublican

Who will win the 2026 Florida Governor Republican Primary?

Aug 19, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 34 daysLast updated: Jul 16, 2026, 11:53 PM UTC

Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place

$9.4K

AUG 19, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

Claim Offer$50TradeBonus

Deposit $20, get $50 on Polymarket

OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$9.4K

24h volume

P. Renner29%

J. Collins23%

R. Rodriguez3%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

August

TUE 18

Florida 2026 primary

November

TUE 3

Florida 2026 general election

Latest Insights

Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place

Paul Renner is now at 34% and leads by 4.0 points in Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place.

34%

Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place

The latest poll has Byron Donalds ahead by 39 points, but Paul Renner leads the odds for the Florida Republican Governor primary.

News

AINews Summary

Byron Donalds is the main candidate in the recent Florida GOP primary news, and he is now dealing with a civil lawsuit over an alleged 2022 confrontation. Separately, tensions are rising inside Florida Republican politics as Jay Collins clashes with DeSantis allies. No new polling or official race results were reported. The lawsuit could add some downside risk for Donalds, but the effect is uncertain from the summaries alone. With no new polling or results, the market picture looks mostly unchanged.

Articles

TDTallahassee Democrat15 hours ago

With time ticking down, DeSantis absorbs fresh policy hits

Gov. Ron DeSantis has been counted out before, but with less than six months left in office, his reach may be constricted.

NNewsBreak8 days ago

The Democrat everyone suddenly wants to believe in

For the past month, one name has dominated discussions of the 2028 Democratic primary: Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff. Though Ossoff is running for reelection in

PPOLITICO9 days ago

With GOP primary looming, DeSantis-Collins ties fray in Florida

The back-and-forth involving Collins comes just more than a month before the Aug. 18 Republican primary.

NNewsweek14 days ago

New Poll Shows JD Vance Ahead of Potential 2028 Candidates by Double Digits

While the survey indicates he is the early favorite, the 2028 nomination contest remains fluid.

TPThe Philadelphia Inquirer2 days ago

Josh Shapiro has fundraised $50 million since the beginning of last year, his campaign says

The first-term Democratic governor this week announced he has raised an additional $12 million in fundraising between April and June.

AOAround Osceola1 day ago

Election 2026: Think about the primary- are you registered?

We are within a month of voting for the first time in 2026, as primary election day is on Aug. 18. If you would like to vote— or change your party election in order to vote for that party’s candidates in primary races— you must be registered by Monday.

GSGainesville Sun8 days ago

Florida school board member lawsuit says Rep. Donalds threatened her

A Florida school board member involved in a lengthy legal dispute with the wife of U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds claims in lawsuit he threatened her.

Polls

Polling Average

50%40%30%20%10%0%

44.0%

9.2%

B. Donalds

J. Collins

P. Renner

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Donalds	Collins	Renner
Polling Average	Donalds+34.8	44.0%	9.2%	3.5%
Change ResearchJul 9 - 11	Donalds+23.0	37.0%	14.0%	2.0%
The Tyson GroupJul 8 - 11	Donalds+39.0	48.0%	9.0%	4.0%
David Jay WolfsonJul 2 - 6	Donalds+17.3	37.5%	20.2%	2.1%
The Public Sentiment InstituteJun 29 - 30	Donalds+20.1	32.3%	12.2%	6.7%
The Public Sentiment InstituteJun 8 - 9	Donalds+26.3	37.3%	11.0%	3.9%
Associated Industries of FloridaJun 3 - 7	Donalds+49.0	54.0%	5.0%	2.0%
Change ResearchMay 13 - 16	Donalds+40.0	48.0%	8.0%	3.0%
Change ResearchMay 13 - 16	Donalds+37.0	45.0%	8.0%	3.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesApr 26 - 30	Donalds+47.0	54.0%	7.0%	2.0%
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchMar 25 - Apr 13	Donalds+31.0	38.0%	6.0%	7.0%
Tarrance GroupMar 30 - Apr 2	Donalds+44.0	50.0%	6.0%	3.0%
Emerson CollegeMar 29 - 31	Donalds+42.3	46.4%	4.1%	2.7%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

Paul Renner

Florida Fraternal Order of Police

The Florida Fraternal Order of Police endorsed Paul Renner for governor.

Who will win the 2026 Florida Governor Republican Primary?

Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place

Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place

News

With time ticking down, DeSantis absorbs fresh policy hits

The Democrat everyone suddenly wants to believe in

With GOP primary looming, DeSantis-Collins ties fray in Florida

New Poll Shows JD Vance Ahead of Potential 2028 Candidates by Double Digits

Josh Shapiro has fundraised $50 million since the beginning of last year, his campaign says

Election 2026: Think about the primary- are you registered?

Florida school board member lawsuit says Rep. Donalds threatened her

Polls

Endorsements

Fundraising

Related races

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

FL-06 Republican nominee?

FL-16 Republican nominee?

FL-25 Democratic nominee?

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place

Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place

News

With time ticking down, DeSantis absorbs fresh policy hits

The Democrat everyone suddenly wants to believe in

With GOP primary looming, DeSantis-Collins ties fray in Florida

New Poll Shows JD Vance Ahead of Potential 2028 Candidates by Double Digits

Josh Shapiro has fundraised $50 million since the beginning of last year, his campaign says

Election 2026: Think about the primary- are you registered?

Florida school board member lawsuit says Rep. Donalds threatened her

Polls

Endorsements

Fundraising

Related races

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

FL-06 Republican nominee?

FL-16 Republican nominee?

FL-25 Democratic nominee?