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Who will win the 2026 Florida Governor Republican Primary?

Aug 19, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 26 daysLast updated: Jul 24, 2026, 2:38 PM UTC

Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place

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AUG 19, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

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Total volume

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24h volume

P. Renner60%

J. Fishback28%

J. Collins17%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

August

TUE 18

Florida 2026 primary

November

TUE 3

Florida 2026 general election

Latest Insights

Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place

Paul Renner's odds are up 32.0 points and are now at 61% in the Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place.

61%32%

News

AINews Summary

Byron Donalds remains the Trump-backed candidate in the Florida Republican governor race. A recent analysis says the fight for second place is still open, with Ron DeSantis withholding an endorsement. Jay Collins is also in conflict with DeSantis allies, while Donalds faces a civil lawsuit. The latest news keeps the race unsettled behind Donalds, which may support his lead while leaving the rest of the field uncertain. The lawsuit could add some downside risk, but the overall effect is still mixed.

Articles

NDNaples Daily News3 days ago

Judge hears case to remove James Fishback from Florida ballot

A Florida judge is hearing a lawsuit to remove GOP candidate for governor James Fishback from the ballot over residency and other issues.

NDNaples Daily News4 days ago

Byron Donalds calls for 3 Florida debates with David Jolly

Byron Donalds challenged David Jolly to debates, but the Democrat says he must win his primary race first.

TVThe Verge1 day ago

The right-wing boomers protesting data centers have a lot in common with the left

The conservative backlash to hyperscale facilities is about jobs, the environment, quality of life — and China.

WCWDIV ClickOnDetroit16 hours ago

Nearly 150,000 mail ballots rejected in California' primary despite efforts to count every vote

Nearly 150,000 voters have had their mail-in ballots rejected for California’s June primary election, a sharp spike from previous primaries.

Polls

Polling Average

50%40%30%20%10%0%

43.9%

10.1%

B. Donalds

J. Collins

P. Renner

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Donalds	Collins	Renner
Polling Average	Donalds+33.8	43.9%	10.1%	3.5%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesJul 14 - 16	Donalds+43.0	53.0%	10.0%	4.0%
CygnalJul 12 - 13	Donalds+32.1	43.2%	11.1%	2.3%
Change ResearchJul 9 - 11	Donalds+23.0	37.0%	14.0%	2.0%
The Tyson GroupJul 8 - 11	Donalds+39.0	48.0%	9.0%	4.0%
David Jay WolfsonJul 2 - 6	Donalds+17.3	37.5%	20.2%	2.1%
The Public Sentiment InstituteJun 29 - 30	Donalds+20.1	32.3%	12.2%	6.7%
The Public Sentiment InstituteJun 8 - 9	Donalds+26.3	37.3%	11.0%	3.9%
Associated Industries of FloridaJun 3 - 7	Donalds+49.0	54.0%	5.0%	2.0%
Change ResearchMay 13 - 16	Donalds+40.0	48.0%	8.0%	3.0%
Change ResearchMay 13 - 16	Donalds+37.0	45.0%	8.0%	3.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesApr 26 - 30	Donalds+47.0	54.0%	7.0%	2.0%
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchMar 25 - Apr 13	Donalds+31.0	38.0%	6.0%	7.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

Paul Renner

Florida Fraternal Order of Police

The Florida Fraternal Order of Police endorsed Paul Renner for governor.

Who will win the 2026 Florida Governor Republican Primary?

Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place

News

Judge hears case to remove James Fishback from Florida ballot

Byron Donalds calls for 3 Florida debates with David Jolly

The right-wing boomers protesting data centers have a lot in common with the left

Nearly 150,000 mail ballots rejected in California' primary despite efforts to count every vote

Polls

Endorsements

Fundraising

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Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place

News

Judge hears case to remove James Fishback from Florida ballot

Byron Donalds calls for 3 Florida debates with David Jolly

The right-wing boomers protesting data centers have a lot in common with the left

Nearly 150,000 mail ballots rejected in California' primary despite efforts to count every vote

Polls

Endorsements

Fundraising

Related races

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

FL-06 Republican nominee?

FL-16 Republican nominee?

FL-25 Democratic nominee?