$19.5K
MAR 3, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated May 26, 2026, 10:23 PM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds | Poll average | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 24.5% | $2.08M | |
| 2% | 28.3% | $621.3K | |
| 1% | — | $121.9K | |
| 1% | — | — | |
| 1% | — | — | |
| 1% | 5.3% | $425.4K | |
| 1% | 5.3% | — | |
| 1% | 3.3% | $27.7K | |
| 1% | — | $5.3K |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
Alex Mealer has won the Republican runoff in Texas's 9th Congressional District, locking up the GOP nomination. The seat was newly redrawn and is expected to stay safely Republican. Other Texas GOP news is separate and does not affect this race. Mealer’s runoff win resolves the nomination contest and should sharply reduce uncertainty. The market likely shifts toward Mealer as the confirmed GOP nominee in a favorable district.
Freshman Rep. Christian Menefee defeated longtime Rep. Al Green in the Democratic primary runoff for Texas’ 18th Congressional District, NBC News projects, after a rare incumbent-on-incumbent matchup sparked by Republican-led redistricting efforts.
President Donald Trump's endorsements loom large over Tuesday's runoff elections in Texas with longtime Sen. John Cornyn facing Trump-pick Ken Paxton.
With less than five weeks to go until the midterm elections, Republicans face historical headwinds as the party in power and must also contend with high gas prices amid the ongoing Iran war.
A new Cook Political Report analysis moved three Texas U.S. House races toward Democrats as the GOP fights to keep its majority. See where each stands.
One of the biggest shifts in the Texas political landscape came in the voters' decision to select Attorney General Ken Paxton as the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, ousting four-term incumbent John Cornyn.
All eyes will be on the Republican Senate runoff between the incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. But the runoffs will feature other important contests.
Tuesday’s primary runoffs in Texas will put President Donald Trump’s endorsement to the test again — the latest step in a mission to punish some incumbent Republicans Trump has deemed insufficiently loyal
The latest round of primary elections is getting underway in four more states. The midterm elections in November will determine control of both chambers of Congress and will also see the election of...
Trump-Backed Mealer Wins Texas GOP Runoff in Redrawn Houston-Area District
Polling results and averages based on polls published between Oct 20, 2025 and Feb 11, 2026.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.
A. MealerAlexandra del Moral MealerB. CainBriscoe CainD. MimsDan Mims
J. BlancoJaimy BlancoD. StovallDwayne Stovall
T. ThainTerry ThainSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
