$12.1K
MAY 27, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Alexandra del Moral Mealer’s probability in the TX-09 GOP nominee market rose from 85% to 94% over the last 24 hours, alongside fresh reporting on the May 26 runoff and early voting window. That keeps her the clear favorite, and the move is trader-relevant because the market is now pricing in a very lopsided runoff outcome.
Fresh Texas Tribune reporting keeps the May 26 Mealer-Cain runoff in focus, and Mealer’s market price has surged from 94% to 94% over the last 24 hours. In a thin market, that’s a meaningful trader-relevant move because it reinforces Mealer as the clear GOP favorite ahead of runoff voting.
New Texas Tribune reporting spotlights the Mealer-Cain runoff in the newly redrawn TX-09, keeping Alexandra del Moral Mealer’s Trump-backed favoritism in focus ahead of May 26. The market is already heavily priced toward Mealer, but the fresh coverage reinforces her path as the runoff nears.
Texas Republican primaries are underway, and some races are already moving to runoff elections. Trump-backed candidates have had mixed results across the state. Redistricting changes may also be affecting the broader House map and nomination contests. The latest news suggests the nomination picture is still fluid, with runoff outcomes likely to matter. Trump-backed candidates may have an edge where endorsements are in play, but the overall effect on this district is still unclear.
Tennessee lawmakers have passed a new U.S. House map that carves up a majority-Black district in Memphis. The new voting districts approved Thursday could give Republicans a chance to win all nine of the state’s congressional seats in the November midterm elections.
Five Florida U.S. House seats represented by Democrats show dramatic shifts to the GOP based on the 2024 presidential election results.
Republican lawmakers in Tennessee approved a new U.S. House map Thursday that carves up a majority-Black district in Memphis, reshaping it to the GOP’s advantage as part of President Donald Trump’s strategy to hold on to a slim majority in the November midterm elections.
COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Tuesday's primary in Ohio set up what is expected to be one of the most expensive races for U.S. Senate this year as Republicans try to hold on to the chamber during a difficult midterm year. Meanwhile biotech billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy will face a challenge from the state's former health director as he seeks to keep the governor's office in GOP hands.
Primary election day in Texas is Tuesday with voters headed to the polls to determine the Democratic and Republican candidates for the November general election.
Seven states have adopted new maps since last summer, as the simmering redistricting war between Democrats and Republicans continues.
Three states are kicking off the 2026 midterm elections Tuesday with primaries that will shape the battle for control of the House and the Senate, while simmering fights for control of each party could boil over as voters decide whether to discard longtime incumbents
Donald Trump endorsed more than 130 candidates in Texas Republican primaries. See who made the runoff — and who Trump has and hasn't backed.
Florida's Legislature is in a special session to consider Gov. DeSantis's redistricting map, which could turn four US House seats red. Is that legal?
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
A. MealerAlexandra del Moral MealerB. CainBriscoe CainD. MimsDan Mims
J. BlancoJaimy BlancoD. StovallDwayne Stovall
T. ThainTerry ThainSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
