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High Impact3d

Amish Shah

62%

Amish Shah is now at 62%, ahead by 13.0 points after trailing earlier.

ActivePrimary ElectionDemocratic

Who will win the 2026 Arizona District 1 US House Democratic Primary?

Jul 22, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 18 daysLast updated: Jul 4, 2026, 6:23 AM UTC

AZ-01 Democratic nominee?

$35.2K

JUL 22, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$35.2K

24h volume

$121

A. Shah56%

M. Galán-Woods27%

J. Treble22%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

July

TUE 21

Arizona 2026 primary

November

TUE 3

Arizona 2026 general election

Latest Insights

AZ-01 Democratic nominee?

3dHigh Impact

Amish Shah is now at 62%, ahead by 13.0 points after trailing earlier.

62%

AZ-01 Democratic nominee?

Treble’s contract has dropped from 20% to near-zero, sharpening the race between Amish Shah and Marlene Galán-Woods ahead of Arizona’s July 21 primary.

20%0%

AZ-01 Democratic nominee?

10h

Shah’s contract has bounced back to 54% after a sharp slide, keeping the AZ-01 primary tightly contested as fresh local coverage continues to frame the race around Shah vs. Galán-Woods ahead of the July 21 vote.

54%19%

News

AINews Summary

The Democratic primary in Arizona's 1st Congressional District remains a close contest between Amish Shah and Marlene Galán-Woods. The DCCC has backed Galán-Woods, and the candidates sparred over that support in a June 9 debate. Early voting for the July 21 primary is now underway. The DCCC endorsement may give Galán-Woods a modest edge, but the race still looks competitive. Early voting adds urgency, but the outcome remains uncertain.

Articles

NNewsweek7 days ago

Democrats Launch Centrist Group as Trump Attacks Socialists, Communists

“We are capitalist, not socialist,” a group of 15 Democrats wrote after signing a pledge onto a new centrist initiative.

SLSalt Lake City Deseret News9 days ago

Arizona’s primary showdown kicks off with early voting

Here are three races worth watching.

TAThe Arizona Republic25 days ago

Swing-district Democrats clash on attack ads, party 'insiders'

Amish Shah and Marlene Galán-Woods, the two Democratic frontrunners in a swing Arizona congressional district, sparred in a TV debate.

NNewsmax2 months ago

Feely to Newsmax: Rival's Obama Ties Don't Fit Arizona GOP

Former NFL kicker Jay Feely is escalating his attacks against Republican rival John Trobough in Arizona’s pivotal 1st Congressional District race, framing the contest as a battle between a Trump-backed outsider and a former Obama administration figure.

TAThe Arizona Republic1 month ago

Who is running for Arizona governor in 2026?

The race has focused competition between Reps. Andy Biggs and David Schweikert, who want the GOP nomination to challenge Democrat Katie Hobbs.

SLSalt Lake City Deseret News1 month ago

Here’s how Trump-endorsed candidates are faring in this purple state

From ‘America’s Sheriff’ to this former NFL kicker — these GOP candidates face an uphill battle

ACArizona Capitol Times2 months ago

Trump-backed CD1 candidate defends war with Iran in PBS debate

Primary contests begin in Arizona's 1st Congressional District to select a replacement for U.S. Rep. David Schweikert's seat.

CNCable News Network2 months ago

House Democrats’ campaign arm takes sides in contentious primaries key to winning midterms

The House Democratic campaign arm on Monday inflamed ongoing tensions over the influence of party leadership by taking sides in several competitive primaries for battleground House seats.

WEWashington Examiner6 months ago

DNC launches voter registration push amid House 2026 tensions

The DNC is launching a voter registration push as vulnerable House Democrats question whether the strategy is enough to win back the House.

Polls

Polling Average

40%30%20%10%0%

32.5%

11%

A. Shah

M. Galán-Woods

M. Gordon

J. Treble

R. McCartney

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Shah	Galán-Woods	Gordon	Treble	McCartney
Polling Average	Shah+21.5	32.5%	11.0%	1.8%	1.5%	1.5%
HighGroundFeb 21 - 23	Shah+21.5	32.5%	11.0%	1.8%	1.5%	1.5%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

Amish Shah

Tammy Caputi

Tammy Caputi endorsed Amish Shah.

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Marlene Galán-Woods

State Senator Mitzi Epstein

State Senator Mitzi Epstein endorsed Marlene Galán-Woods.

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DCCC

DCCC backed Marlene Galán-Woods in Arizona's 1st Congressional District.

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Secretary of State Adrian Fontes

Secretary of State Adrian Fontes endorsed Marlene Galán-Woods.

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Latino Victory Fund

Latino Victory Fund endorsed Marlene Galán-Woods in a competitive House district.

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Jonathan Treble

Stephanie Simacek

Stephanie Simacek endorsed Jonathan Treble.

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Alliance for American Leadership

Alliance for American Leadership endorsed Jonathan Treble for Arizona's 1st Congressional District.

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Rick McCartney

Young Democrats of Arizona

Young Democrats of Arizona endorsed Rick McCartney.

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Kathy Hoffman

Kathy Hoffman endorsed Rick McCartney for Congress.

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Mark Robert Gordon

David Lujan

David Lujan endorsed Mark Robert Gordon for Congress in Arizona's 1st Congressional District.

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Patty Contreras

Patty Contreras endorsed Mark Robert Gordon for Congress in Arizona's 1st Congressional District.

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Andrei Cherny

Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego

Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego endorsed Andrei Cherny.

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Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Mar 31, 2026

$2.5M

$1.9M

$1.3M

$625K

J. Treble

A. Shah

R. McCartney

M. Gordon

A. Cherny

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

J. TrebleJonathan Treble

$2.48MContrib: $2.46M

$1.67MSpent: $815.9K

$54.4KLast period: $389.7K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

A. ShahAmish Shah

$1.29MContrib: $1.01M

$707.1KSpent: $675.2K

$45.0KLast period: $208.2K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

R. McCartneyRick McCartney

$871.3KContrib: $505.6K

$456.9KSpent: $414.4K

$27.6KLast period: $131.2K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

M. GordonMark Robert Gordon

$291.5KContrib: $284.9K

$63.8KSpent: $227.7K

$15.2KLast period: $29.4K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

A. ChernyAndrei Cherny

$10.0KContrib: $0

$0Spent: $15.4K

$3.8KLast period: $0

TERMINATION REPORT · Apr 30, 2025

Source: FEC

Who will win the 2026 Arizona District 1 US House Democratic Primary?

AZ-01 Democratic nominee?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

AZ-01 Democratic nominee?

AZ-01 Democratic nominee?

AZ-01 Democratic nominee?

News

Democrats Launch Centrist Group as Trump Attacks Socialists, Communists

Arizona’s primary showdown kicks off with early voting

Swing-district Democrats clash on attack ads, party 'insiders'

Feely to Newsmax: Rival's Obama Ties Don't Fit Arizona GOP

Who is running for Arizona governor in 2026?

Here’s how Trump-endorsed candidates are faring in this purple state

Trump-backed CD1 candidate defends war with Iran in PBS debate

House Democrats’ campaign arm takes sides in contentious primaries key to winning midterms

DNC launches voter registration push amid House 2026 tensions

Polls

Endorsements

Fundraising

Related races

Arizona Governor winner?

Arizona Republican Governor nominee?

AZ-05 Republican nominee?

AZ-04 Democratic nominee?

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

AZ-01 Democratic nominee?

AZ-01 Democratic nominee?

AZ-01 Democratic nominee?

News

Democrats Launch Centrist Group as Trump Attacks Socialists, Communists

Arizona’s primary showdown kicks off with early voting

Swing-district Democrats clash on attack ads, party 'insiders'

Feely to Newsmax: Rival's Obama Ties Don't Fit Arizona GOP

Who is running for Arizona governor in 2026?

Here’s how Trump-endorsed candidates are faring in this purple state

Trump-backed CD1 candidate defends war with Iran in PBS debate

House Democrats’ campaign arm takes sides in contentious primaries key to winning midterms

DNC launches voter registration push amid House 2026 tensions

Polls

Endorsements

Fundraising

Related races

Arizona Governor winner?

Arizona Republican Governor nominee?

AZ-05 Republican nominee?

AZ-04 Democratic nominee?