Race Rating
Safe or unrated
Cook/270toWin 2026
Partisan lean: Safe Democratic or unrated
ClosedGeneral Election
2026 California House Election Polls, Odds & Candidates
Election Day: Recorded market close:
CA-11 House winner?
$346.3K
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Race Snapshot
Compare the candidates' saved odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Saved odds | Poll average | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 46.6% | $4.56M | |
| 20% | 38.9% | $1.09M |
OddsSaved odds
Prices saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
Odds History
Total volume
$346.3K
24h volume
$17.1K
source: Kalshi
Politics IQ
Structural race context from reviewed jurisdiction data
California 11th District · US House
Safe or unratedSafe Democratic or unratedOpen seatDistrict context
Seat Dynamics
Open seat
Incumbent: Nancy Pelosi (D)
Election Rules
Primary Jun 2, 2026
Runoff: No
General: Nov 3, 2026
Why it matters
The seat is open, so candidate quality and fundraising can matter more than incumbency.
Sources reviewed May 2, 2026 · Office of the Clerk · 270toWin/Cook · 270toWin · NCSL
Election Dates and Deadlines
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Latest Election News
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
AINews Summary
Scott Wiener finished first in the California 11th District primary, with Connie Chan taking second and advancing to November. Saikat Chakrabarti was eliminated after a distant third-place finish. The market is now focused on the certified primary totals and the general-election matchup. Wiener’s clear first-place finish strengthens his position in the market. Chan’s advance keeps the general-election race relevant, but the primary result points to Wiener as the early favorite.
Articles
VCVentura County Star23 hours ago
Connie Chan, Scott Wiener election results
San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan and State Sen. Scott Wiener are locked in a closely watched race for California Congressional District 11.
FNFox News7 months ago
Sanders-AOC ally Analilia Mejia wins NJ-11 special election in New Jersey
Progressive organizer Analilia Mejia won New Jersey's 11th District special election, defeating Republican Joe Hathaway by nearly 20 points to fill Gov. Mikie Sherrill's seat.
NNewsweek7 months ago
Democrats Get Boost as Analilia Mejia Wins New Jersey Special Election
Analilia Mejia wins New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election on Thursday.
NNJ.com7 months ago
So is Mikie Sherrill running for president? | Mikie’s World
Breaking down the rumors of Gov. Mikie Sherrill's potential roles on the national stage.
FNFox News4 months ago
Dem congressional candidate says far-left agitators used antisemitic tropes
California congressional candidate Scott Wiener said Gaza activists at San Francisco's Trans March crossed the line from protest into antisemitic intimidation.
HHuffPost5 months ago
Wealthy Self-Funding Candidates Fell Short In 2 California Primaries
Political experts say that hefty campaign spending can boost candidates, though it also has notable limits.
LALos Angeles Times5 months ago
What the primary chaos says about California Democrats
Not even party officials could rein in the chaos of the Democrats in California's recent primary. What does the chaos mean for Democrats in a true-blue state?
NYNew York Post5 months ago
Hasan Piker goes on homophobic rant after Scott Wiener wins SF congressional primary
Left-wing streamer Hasan Piker unleashed a homophobic rant after his pal, Saikat Chakrabarti, lost a San Francisco congressional primary.
DDecrypt5 months ago
Stripe Millionaire Loses Bid for Congress to Candidate Backed by Ripple Co
Former Stripe engineer Saikat Chakrabarti lost his bid to succeed Nancy Pelosi in California to a candidate backed by Ripple's Chris Larsen.
TGThe Gateway Pundit5 months ago
Far Left Extremist Scott Wiener, Who Decriminalized Spreading AIDS and Passed the 'Pedophile Protection Bill,' Advances in California Primary to Replace Nancy Pelosi * The Gateway Pundit * by Cassandr
Far-left extremist California State Sen.
Latest Polls
Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
46.6%
38.9%
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign Fundraising
Total RaisedCash on Hand
Jun 30, 2026$5M
$3.8M
$2.5M
$1.3M
$0
S. Wiener
C. Chan
M. Hurabiell
Candidate
Total Raised
Cash on Hand
Burn Rate (per month)
Last report
S. WienerScott Wiener$4.56MContrib: $4.54M
$1.23MSpent: $3.33M
$184.8KLast period: $568.5K
JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026
C. ChanConnie Chan$1.09MContrib: $1.09M
$362.1KSpent: $732.2K
$40.7KLast period: $441.3K
JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026
M. HurabiellMarie Hurabiell$861.4KContrib: $491.4K
$68.4KSpent: $792.9K
$44.1KLast period: $53.2K
JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026
Source: FEC
Related Races
Saved Kalshi settlement results
These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.
Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
CA-11 House winner?
No verified final result is available for this race.
Who will win the CA-11 House election?
Settlement pending
Who will win the CA-11 House election?
Settlement pending