Race Rating
Safe or unrated
Cook/270toWin 2026
Partisan lean: Safe Democratic or unrated
ClosedGeneral Election
2026 California House Election Polls, Odds & Candidates
Election Day: Recorded market close:
CA-15 House winner?
$17.3K
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Race Snapshot
Compare the candidates' saved odds and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Saved odds | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|
| 97% | $819.7K | |
| 2% | — |
OddsSaved odds
Prices saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
Odds History
Total volume
$17.3K
24h volume
$189
source: Kalshi
Politics IQ
Structural race context from reviewed jurisdiction data
California 15th District · US House
Safe or unratedSafe Democratic or unratedDistrict context
Seat Dynamics
Incumbent defense
Incumbent: Kevin Mullin (D)
Election Rules
Primary Jun 2, 2026
Runoff: No
General: Nov 3, 2026
Sources reviewed May 2, 2026 · Office of the Clerk · 270toWin/Cook · 270toWin · NCSL
Election Dates and Deadlines
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Latest Election News
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
AINews Summary
The biggest new item is Elon Musk’s revival of America PAC for 2026 turnout operations, with California flagged as a place where outside spending could matter. Separately, Rep. Mike Levin’s new bill confirms him as the district’s incumbent. Broader House analysis still shows a competitive national environment, but nothing district-specific has changed. The news is mostly indirect for this district and does not clearly shift the race. It may slightly raise attention to outside spending and turnout effects, but uncertainty remains high.
Articles
CNCBS News5 days ago
Rep. Mike Thompson faces fellow Democrat Eric Jones in contentious race for 4th District
After nearly three decades in Congress, Democratic Rep. Mike Thompson is facing an unusual reelection challenge from a fellow Democrat four decades his junior, in a race that has become a battle over experience, generational change and the influence of money in politics.
HCHartford Courant5 months ago
Analysis: 11 House races move toward Democrats
WASHINGTON — Another month, and another batch of rating changes that benefit Democrats. But the House Republican majority is not lost yet, according to a district-by-district analysis of the House battleground. With less than five months to go, the fundamentals of midterm elections continue to favor Democrats. President Donald Trump’s job rating is underwater at 39% approve and 58% disapprove, ...
TNThe New Yorker5 months ago
Is the Working Class Finally Turning on Trump?
A retired Pennsylvania steelworker who vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016 cast ballots for Donald Trump in 2020 and 2024. HereÆs where he stands now. Eyal Press reports.
WWTOP6 months ago
Editorial Roundup: United States
Excerpts from recent editorials in the United States and abroad: ___ May 8 The Washington Post on Trump's second tariff defeat The Trump administration is…
CNCBS News6 months ago
Supreme Court strikes down Louisiana congressional map, narrowing Voting Rights Act
The Supreme Court rule 6-3 in a decision that has implications for the scope of the landmark Voting Rights Act.
TTCPalm6 months ago
A closer look at five key areas affected by Florida redistricting
Five Florida U.S. House seats represented by Democrats show dramatic shifts to the GOP based on the 2024 presidential election results.
TDThe Daily Beast7 days ago
Trump’s Plot to Cheat Voters Blows Up in His Face
The president started a redistricting arms race, but it doesn’t seem to be working.
NYNew York Post1 day ago
GOP incumbents in 4 midterm House races could be in trouble as Trump's support among Hispanic voters plummets
President Trump’s approval rating with Hispanics cratered since the start of his second term – and a sizable share of latinos that voted for him in 2024 now plan to vote against Republican candidates in the midterm elections.
F9FOX 913 days ago
2026 midterm elections: 21 key House races to follow
Voters across the country will decide which party controls the House as a handful of closely watched races shape the 2026 midterm elections.
SRSanta Rosa Press Democrat5 months ago
Thousands of Sonoma and Napa county voters cast their ballots on Election Day
Sonoma and Napa county voters cast ballots in Tuesday's primary for governor, as well as state and local races. In Sonoma County, voters weigh in on SMART train tax extension.
Campaign Fundraising
Total RaisedCash on Hand
Jun 30, 2026$1M
$750K
$500K
$250K
$0
K. Mullin
Candidate
Total Raised
Cash on Hand
Burn Rate (per month)
Last report
K. MullinKevin Mullin$819.7KContrib: $818.0K
$219.7KSpent: $651.7K
$36.2KLast period: $101.3K
JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026
Source: FEC
Related Races
Saved Kalshi settlement results
These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.
Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
CA-15 House winner?
All preserved contracts have verified final results.
Will Democratic win the House race for CA-15?
Final: Yes
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 6:53 AM UTC
Will Republican win the House race for CA-15?
Final: No
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 6:53 AM UTC