$33.9K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
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$33.9K
24h volume
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source: Kalshi
Lois Frankel’s switch to FL-23 leaves FL-22 without its incumbent and keeps the redistricting-driven field change central to the race. That’s trader-relevant because it reinforces that FL-22’s odds are being reset by the map, not normal campaign noise.
Lois Frankel said she will seek reelection in the new Florida 23rd District after the redrawn map moved much of her current FL-22 territory, underscoring that the map fight is now reshaping the actual candidate field in this market.
Democratic odds in FL-22 fell to 57% after trading as high as 63% this week, while fresh reporting says DeSantis signed Florida’s new congressional map and a lawsuit followed. That keeps the race’s redistricting risk live for traders even though the district still leans Democratic.
Florida’s new congressional map could strengthen Republicans statewide, and Michael Carbonara has already entered the FL-22 race against Debbie Wasserman Schultz. The district’s boundaries have changed, and the map may still face legal challenges. Broader House ratings have also moved somewhat toward Democrats. The new Florida map appears to improve Republican prospects in the district, but the effect is still uncertain because the plan may face legal challenges. Broader House trends are mixed for the GOP.
Redistricting, a looming federal criminal trial and a primary with racial undertones are just a few of the dynamics shaping the race to represent the Broward County district.
Michael Carbonara made the announcement on Florida's Voice with Drew Steele...
Republican-led states are eying changes to boost the GOP’s gerrymandering effort at the expense of voters of color
Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry and plans to postpone elections for the U.S. House after the Supreme Court ruled the current voting map unconstitutional.
Several seats thought to be safe for Republicans shifted toward competitiveness in new Sabato’s Crystal Ball midterm ratings.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faces a second day of grilling from Democrats on Capitol Hill, with senators getting their first opportunity to confront or praise the Pentagon chief over his handling of the Iran war.
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
Democrats consider dozens of seats "in play" this November, and aim to leverage the domestic fallout from Trump's war in Iran.
This week's ruling striking down racial gerrymandering means the political map could look a lot more red for years to come.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
