Race Rating
Likely Republican
Cook/270toWin 2026
Partisan lean: Republican
ClosedPrimary ElectionRepublican
2026 Florida Republican House Primary Results
Primary Day: Recorded market close:
FL-07 Republican nominee?
$73.7K
AUG 18, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Race Snapshot
Compare the candidates' saved odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Saved odds | Poll average | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 26.6% | $356.0K |
OddsSaved odds
Prices saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
Odds History
Total volume
$73.7K
24h volume
$19.6K
source: Kalshi
Politics IQ
Structural race context from reviewed jurisdiction data
Florida 7th District · US House
Likely RepublicanRepublicanDistrict contextCompetitive House rating
Seat Dynamics
Incumbent defense
Incumbent: Cory Mills (R)
Election Rules
Primary Aug 18, 2026
Runoff: No
General: Nov 3, 2026
Why it matters
The district is rated Likely Republican, so turnout and late-cycle spending may have outsized effects.
Sources reviewed May 2, 2026 · Office of the Clerk · 270toWin/Cook · 270toWin · NCSL
Election Dates and Deadlines
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Latest Election News
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
AINews Summary
Ryan Elijah defeated Rep. Cory Mills in the Republican primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District. The loss ends Mills' bid for a third term after a campaign marked by ethics scrutiny and misconduct allegations. Trump later said he had told Mills to leave the race and then backed Elijah. The primary result resolves the nomination in Elijah's favor and sharply hurts Mills. It likely lowers uncertainty in the market now that the Republican nominee appears decided.
Articles
NNPR3 days ago
How Gen Z Republican candidates hope to shape the future GOP : NPR
On the eve of what may prove to be a tough election for the GOP, young conservatives vying to be part of the first class of Gen Z Republicans in Congress want a role shaping the party's next chapter.
WWTOP4 days ago
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Florida on Election Day
WASHINGTON (AP) — Florida Republicans will try to extend their dominance in statewide elections Tuesday as voters decide races for Senate, governor and other st
MMassLive3 months ago
GOP insider takes credit for toppling Trump-backed Cory Mills
He said he recruited the GOP primary challenger to run.
IBInternational Business Times3 months ago
Embattled Congressman Cory Mills Loses Florida Primary Following Misconduct Allegations
Mills, who has served as Florida's 7th District congressman since 2022, has been dogged by a House Ethics Committee investigation.
TTIME3 months ago
Florida Rep. Cory Mills Loses Primary After Scandal-Filled Campaign
Despite Trump’s endorsement, Mills was unable to escape his long history of controversy.
SSFGATE3 months ago
Florida holds primaries for governor and Congress, testing Trump's grip on adopted state
Florida voters cast ballots Tuesday for Republican and Democratic nominees for governor, U.S. Senate and several congressional races. The primaries will define a midterm ballot set to test President...
NVNorfolk Virginian-Pilot4 months ago
Trump-backed Alfonso faces GOP primary challenge in Wisconsin race
U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy’s son-in-law Michael Alfonso faces GOP scrutiny over experience in his Wisconsin congressional bid.
Latest Polls
Polling Average
40%30%20%10%0%
28.3%
26.6%
6.5%
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign Fundraising
Total RaisedCash on Hand
Jul 29, 2026$25M
$18.8M
$12.5M
$6.3M
$0
M. Johnson
C. Mills
R. Elijah
S. Ulrich
Candidate
Total Raised
Cash on Hand
Burn Rate (per month)
Last report
M. JohnsonMike Johnson$20.98MContrib: $14.08M
$9.61MSpent: $12.62M
$664.0KLast period: $424.5K
PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 18, 2026
C. MillsCory Mills$805.3KContrib: $684.5K
$115.5KSpent: $730.7K
$48.7KLast period: $70.8K
APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026
R. ElijahRyan Elijah$356.0KContrib: $222.0K
$186.2KSpent: $169.8K
$8.9KLast period: $54.3K
PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026
S. UlrichSarah Ulrich$19.1KContrib: $19.1K
$1.4KSpent: $17.7K
$930Last period: $1.2K
PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026
Source: FEC
Related Races
Saved Kalshi settlement results
These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.
Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
FL-07 Republican nominee?
All preserved contracts have verified final results.
Will Cory Mills be the Republican nominee for FL-07?
Final: No
Settled Aug 19, 2026, 12:48 AM UTC
Will Mike Johnson be the Republican nominee for FL-07?
Final: No
Settled Aug 19, 2026, 12:48 AM UTC
Will Ryan Elijah be the Republican nominee for FL-07?
Final: Yes
Settled Aug 19, 2026, 12:48 AM UTC
Will Sarah Ulrich be the Republican nominee for FL-07?
Final: No
Settled Aug 19, 2026, 12:48 AM UTC