State Lean
Lean Republican
Not a core swing state
ClosedGeneral Election
2026 Alaska Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates
Election Day: Recorded market close:
Alaska Senate winner? (Person)
$1.1M
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Race Snapshot
Compare the candidates' saved odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Saved odds | Poll average | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 48.6% | $152.3K | |
| 32% | 45.9% | $9.14M | |
| 1% | 45.9% | $9.14M |
OddsSaved odds
Prices saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
Odds History
Total volume
$1.1M
24h volume
$115.2K
source: Kalshi
Politics IQ
Structural race context from reviewed jurisdiction data
Alaska · US Senate
Lean RepublicanNot a core swing state
Primary System
Party primary or state-specific
No primary runoff
Election Rules
Primary Aug 18, 2026
Runoff: No
General: Nov 3, 2026
Sources reviewed May 2, 2026 · U.S. Senate, Class II senators · U.S. Senate, current senator list · 270toWin/Cook · NCSL
Election Dates and Deadlines
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Latest Election News
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
AINews Summary
Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan used a Kodiak debate to clash over fisheries and energy issues. The race remains closely watched, with turnout in the general election seen as potentially decisive. Outside groups are also pouring money into Alaska and other competitive Senate contests. The debate and turnout focus keep the race competitive and may reinforce uncertainty. Outside spending could modestly help Sullivan, but the overall effect is still mixed.
Articles
MLM Live Michigan 1 day ago
Senate midterms 2026: Latest polls show GOP trouble in battleground states
In order to flip the Senate, Democrats need to keep control of their 47 seats and gain four more.
SSlate2 days ago
This Wasn’t Supposed to Be Senate Democrats’ Year. Here’s What Changed.
The party is in the midst of a remarkable comeback—mostly thanks to one man.
ADAnchorage Daily News22 hours ago
Alaskans are preparing for a high-stakes Election Day on Tuesday. Here’s what to know.
Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Election Day. While early results will start rolling in Tuesday night, the final outcome for more competitive races might not be known until ranked choice tabulation takes place Nov. 18.
N5NBC 5 Chicago1 day ago
Election 2026: Races to watch in the House, Senate
The 2026 election is nearly here, and battles for control of the U.S. Senate and House are continuing to heat up
RSRaw Story1 day ago
GOP efforts to interfere with election mocked as 'Comic Sans on a Burger King placemat'
A former top Justice Department official had a brutal review for one of the latest Republican lawsuits seeking to throw this week’s election into doubt.Wired reported on the extraordinary steps President Donald Trump's DOJ has taken to interfere with the Nov. 3 election, and a former official pointe...
UNU.S. News & World Report2 days ago
The Latest: Democrat Who Lost Michigan Senate Primary Backs Republican in General Election Contest
Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s former opponent in the U.S. Senate primary, Haley Stevens, stunned party officials on Sunday by endorsing Republican Mike Rogers in the general election contest after Democratic tensions boiled over. The move came after Stevens was uninvited to a joint event the same day with El-Sayed as he campaigned for the Michigan seat. The outcome could help determine the balance of power on Capitol Hill.
BNBreitbart News Network1 day ago
Democrats’ Alaska Ballot Operation Went Beyond ‘Decoy Dan’ Candidate
Washington Democrats didn’t just put a second “Dan Sullivan” in the Alaska Senate race — they also boosted Republican Gerald Heikes, a perennial candidate for office, with the help of Chuck Schumer and a longtime Alaska Democrat consultant named Jim Lottsfeldt in a year-long effort to boost Democrat Mary Peltola in Tuesday’s general election. | Politics
BSBaltimore Sun1 day ago
Dan Sullivan episode takes ominous turn as FBI comes knocking in Alaska
The Trump administration weighs criminal charges over potential "ballot stacking" in the Alaska Senate race's Dan Sullivan saga.
Latest Polls
Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
48.6%
45.9%
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign Fundraising
Total RaisedCash on Hand
Jul 29, 2026$10M
$7.5M
$5M
$2.5M
$0
D. Sullivan
M. Peltola
Candidate
Total Raised
Cash on Hand
Burn Rate (per month)
Last report
D. SullivanDan Sullivan$9.14MContrib: $6.09M
$7.30MSpent: $3.93M
$207.0KLast period: $512.3K
PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026
M. PeltolaMary Peltola$152.3KContrib: $76.8K
$3.5KSpent: $232.8K
$16.6KLast period: -$1.9K
TERMINATION REPORT · Feb 13, 2026
Source: FEC
Saved Kalshi settlement results
These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.
Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
Alaska Senate winner? (Person)
No verified final result is available for this race.
Will Ann Diener win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
Settlement pending
Will Daniel J. Sullivan win 2026 Alaska Senate race?
Settlement pending
Will Dan Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
Settlement pending
Gerald Heikes
Will Gerald Heikes win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
Settlement pending
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
Settlement pending
Will Richard Grayson win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
Settlement pending
Will Sid Hill win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
Settlement pending