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Who will win the 2026 California District 14 US House Special Election?

Aug 19, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 92 daysLast updated: May 19, 2026, 11:23 AM UTC

CA-14 special election winner

$58.8K

AUG 19, 2026

Candidate standings

Live market pricing for the leading candidates in this election.

OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$58.8K

24h volume

$11.4K

A. Wahab91%

R. Singh15%

M. Hernandez1%

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source: Kalshi

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Latest Insights

Rakhi Israni Singh

5%24H11%

Rakhi Israni Singh’s win odds rebounded from 6% to 11% in the last hour, and fresh reporting still frames Aisha Wahab as the frontrunner. That keeps CA-14 a live volatility market rather than a settled one-way race.

Rakhi Israni Singh

5%24H11%

Rakhi Israni Singh’s win odds jumped from 6% to 11% over the last hour, extending the recent back-and-forth in the CA-14 special-election market. With Aisha Wahab still the frontrunner, this keeps the lower-probability challengers tradable rather than settling the race.

Rakhi Israni Singh

5%24H11%

Rakhi Israni Singh’s win odds have rebounded to 11% after briefly trading as high as 19%, keeping CA-14 a live volatility market even with Aisha Wahab still the clear favorite. Traders may care because the latest move suggests the race is still repricing around the lower-probability challengers rather than settling into a one-way drift.

10h

News

AINews Summary

California’s 14th District special election is set for Aug. 18, with a June 16 primary if needed. The seat opened after Eric Swalwell resigned amid misconduct allegations and a DOJ investigation. Nine candidates are listed, so the market still looks open. The race is now on a set timetable, which should reduce uncertainty. The field remains open, so the news is more about confirming the contest than shifting odds toward a clear favorite.

Articles

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DOJ opens investigation into Eric Swalwell over sexual assault allegations: Report

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AABC17News.com1 month ago

Swalwell and Gonzales resign from Congress under threat of expulsion

CNN By Annie Grayer, CNN (CNN) — Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales resigned from Congress Tuesday, moments before their House colleagues were prepared to set in motion their swift removal. The Democrat and Republican escaped the almost certain public embarrassment of an expulsion vote on the House floor. But while they narrowly avoided the

CNCBS News1 month ago

Special election to fill Eric Swalwell's California congressional seat set by Gov. Newsom

California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Tuesday set the date for a special election to fill Eric Swalwell's congressional seat after his resignation following multiple sexual assault allegations.

Endorsements

Carin Elam

Bob Wieckowski

Bob Wieckowski endorsed Carin Elam.

Learn more

Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Mar 31, 2026

$500K

$375K

$250K

$125K

A. Wahab

M. Hernandez

W. Huang

C. Elam

M. Ortega

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

A. WahabAisha Wahab

$251.6KContrib: $216.6K

$229.3KSpent: $22.2K

$1.5KLast period: $215.6K