$674.0K
AUG 5, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
The May 28 Michigan Democratic Senate debate is generating a new burst of coverage around El-Sayed, Stevens, and McMorrow, keeping the race front-and-center for traders ahead of the August 4 primary.
Fresh reporting on a new Michigan poll showing El-Sayed ahead lines up with a renewed move back to 62%, reinforcing him as the market favorite in a still-active three-way primary.
El-Sayed’s odds jumped back to 62% on the latest trade, keeping him the clear favorite in a race that continues to draw fresh coverage. That matters because the market is still willing to reprice the frontrunner higher despite repeated negative and contrasting candidate news.
Michigan Democrats are heading toward an August 4 primary to pick their Senate nominee. Abdul El-Sayed is leading recent polling, but Haley Stevens and Mallory McMorrow remain competitive. A recent debate kept the race in focus without producing a clear breakout. El-Sayed appears to have a modest edge in current polling, which may support his contract. But the race remains competitive and the debate did not clearly shift the field.
The three candidates vying for the Democratic nomination participated in a debate on Mackinac Island.
A doctor, a senator and a congresswoman met on Mackinac Island to tell Michigan's elite why they deserve to replace Gary Peters in the U.S. Senate.
Political observers in Michigan say Whitmer's fortunes changed after President Donald Trump's return to office.
Democrats suddenly have a real shot at flipping the Senate, writes Ed Kilgore. When the midterms cycle started, the Senate looked secure for the GOP. But after many lucky breaks for Democrats, it’s now a toss-up.
Rogers's lead remains within the margins of error in recent polls, presenting a statistical dead heat for the open battleground seat held by Democrats.
Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., seemed to give conflicting answers about what to do about the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster rule during a wide-ranging Senate Democratic primary debate Thursday.“The filibuster must go so that we can codify health care,” Stevens said, while adding: “We should use the filibuster to not allow the big ugly bill to pass that increased our debt.”It was a reference to President Donald Trump’s so-called big, beautiful bill that extended his 2017 tax cuts.
Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed's former PAC only spent about 13% of the money it raised on candidates and ballot initiatives.
A key moment at a Senate primary debate in Michigan showed how pro-Israel Democrats are approaching the issue with caution.
The five-term congressman should be and probably is a shoo-in for reelection but he's being challenged in his own party by two rivals.
Governor hopefuls have descended upon Mackinac Island to pitch their campaigns ahead of the 2026 election.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
H. StevensHaley Stevens
M. McMorrowMallory McMorrowA. El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed
K. RivetKristen McDonald Rivet
R. TlaibRashida Tlaib
A. LevinAndy LevinSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
