$4.6K
JUN 2, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Jul 10, 2026, 10:23 PM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds | Poll average | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99% | 27.0% | $2.26M | |
| 1% | 11.8% | $1.24M | |
| 1% | — | $472.7K | |
| 1% | 0.5% | — | |
| 1% | — | $35.6K | |
| 1% | 9.8% | — | |
| 1% | 1.0% | $62.5K | |
| 1% | 0.0% | — | |
| 1% | — | $2.27M | |
| 1% | 4.5% | — | |
| 1% | 2.0% | — | |
| 1% | — | $2.17M |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
Reuters projects Jim Desmond and Marni von Wilpert to advance from the California 48th primary. That matches earlier reporting that Desmond was likely to take one of the top-two spots, while Democrats fought for the other. The race is in the redrawn open seat left by Darrell Issa. The projection for Desmond and von Wilpert narrows uncertainty around the top-two outcome. It likely reinforces Desmond’s position and suggests the Democratic field has consolidated enough for von Wilpert to emerge.
California’s congressional primaries on Tuesday are a preliminary test of Democrats’ best chance at countering Republican redistricting gains elsewhere this year.
California Democrats persuaded voters to let them redraw the state’s congressional map so the party could potentially gain five seats in the U.S. House to counter GOP redistricting in Texas. Tuesday’s primary will be the first indication of whether that will pay off.
President Donald Trump, without evidence, is accusing Democrats of trying to "steal" the California gubernatorial and L.A. mayoral primaries.
Democrats have high hopes in the five districts redrawn last year under Proposition 50. But they haven't had it all their own way.
Republican Jim Desmond, a county supervisor and Democrat Marni von Wilpert are projected to advance to the November general election after Tuesday's open primary for California's 48th congressional district, U.S. media said.
With so many key races expected to be tight, officials are warning it could takes days to know the outcome of California's primary election. Here are some important things to watch as the results roll in.
In addition to determining which candidates will advance to the November general election, local voters will decide some ballot measures on the ballots being cast by Election Day on Tuesday.
With control of Congress on the line, the stakes may never have been higher in the newly-redrawn 48th Congressional District.
California's 48th District flipped from Republican stronghold to Democratic-leaning territory after redistricting, setting up a race that could determine control of Congress and challenge President Trump.
Outside groups, some of them funded by billionaires, have pledged to spend at least $2.7 million ahead of a heated primary for the 48th Congressional District.
Polling results and averages based on polls published between Apr 14, 2026 and May 14, 2026.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.
B. RikerBrandon RikerJ. DesmondJim Desmond
M. WilpertMarni von WilpertA. Campa-NajjarAmmar Campa-Najjar
A. ChavezAbel ChavezF. PorterFerguson Porter
C. ContrerasCorinna ContrerasSource: FEC
